Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Temple 40.9, Rhode Island 17.2 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Temple wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23.7 points and 58.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Rhode Island is 1-0, scoring 34 and allowing 7 points per game (+27 per game). Temple has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Rhode Island plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Temple's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Temple by 1 and Temple by 46 about 80% of the time.
Temple gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Temple by about 21.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Rhode Island 14, Temple 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 6.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Rhode Island / Temple) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Temple -12.25 → Temple -14.5 | 51.25 | +487.5 / -700 |
| Bovada | Temple -14.5 | 51 | +475 / -700 |
| DraftKings | Temple -10 → Temple -14.5 | 51.5 | +500 / -700 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Temple win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Temple -23.5 | 58.1 | 94% |
| Market consensus | Temple -14.5 | 51.3 | 84% |
| Blended projection | Temple -16 | 52.3 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Temple win probability
- model 94% · market (no-vig) 84% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Temple -23.7 · market Temple -14.5 · difference +9.2 pts (Temple view)
- Total
- model 58.1 · market 51.25 · difference +6.9
Model margin is 9.2 pts more toward Temple than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rhode Island 17.2, Temple 40.9 | Temple 94%right winner | 0.3 | 6.1 |
| New formula | Rhode Island 22.7, Temple 33.0 | Temple 73%right winner | 13.7 | 3.6 |
Final: Rhode Island 14, Temple 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Rhode Island vs Temple: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Rhode Island | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.3 | 27.8#67 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1 | 29.7#100 |
| Yards per play | 6.75 | 5.50#102 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.15 | 6.26#111 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.4 | 142.9#104 |
| Net passing yards per game | 296.1 | 180.0#113 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.6 | 187.9#106 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.6 | 192.1#33 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.33#2 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.21 | 0.75#113 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57 | 1.17#126 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29 | 1.50#42 |
| Stat | Rhode Island | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.11#30 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.09#114 |
| Success rate | 43.9% | 44.3%#49 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 45.1%#117 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5% | 12.5%#66 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 14.0%#118 |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 9.6%#130 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 11.0%#41 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.58 | 4.81#8 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.23 | 4.90#136 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 30#65 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | own 26#3 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 58.8#133 |
| Stat | Rhode Island | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.00#88 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15 | +0.21#11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.06#108 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.12#110 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.2% | 44.3%#59 |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 43.9%#38 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5% | 19.8%#98 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.9% | 27.6%#101 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9% | 31.6%#96 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.3% | 38.5%#95 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.4% | 41.1%#76 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.1% | 70.5%#23 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.5% | 75.7%#131 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rhode Island schedule · Temple schedule · all Week 1 projections
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