Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tulsa 28.4, Oklahoma State 22.7 at H. A. Chapman Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Tulsa wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 51 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Oklahoma State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Tulsa has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
The most lopsided unit battle: Oklahoma State's strong offense (37th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.4 points against an average defense) against Tulsa's below-average defense (94th). Tulsa's below-average offense (88th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) meets Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack defense (77th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Tulsa puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oklahoma State by 17 and Tulsa by 28 about 80% of the time.
Tulsa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tulsa by about 3.6. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Oklahoma State 10, Tulsa 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.3 points and the total by 17.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oklahoma State / Tulsa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma State -11.5 → Oklahoma State -13.25 | 61.5 → 57.5 | -550 / +400 |
| Bovada | Oklahoma State -11.5 → Oklahoma State -13 | 61.5 → 57.5 | -550 / +390 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma State -11.5 → Oklahoma State -13.5 | 57.5 | -550 / +410 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tulsa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tulsa -5.5 | 51.0 | 65% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma State -13 | 57.5 | 19% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma State -10 | 57.3 | 24% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tulsa win probability
- model 65% · market (no-vig) 19% · difference +45 pts
- Margin
- model Tulsa -5.7 · market Oklahoma State -13.25 · difference +19.0 pts (Tulsa view)
- Total
- model 51.0 · market 57.5 · difference -6.5
Model margin is 19.0 pts more toward Tulsa than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Oklahoma State 22.7, Tulsa 28.4 | Tulsa 65%right winner | 8.3 | 17.0 |
| New formula | Oklahoma State 24.8, Tulsa 31.5 | Tulsa 65%right winner | 7.2 | 22.3 |
Final: Oklahoma State 10, Tulsa 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Oklahoma State vs Tulsa: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.2#134 | 23.2#100 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.3#126 | 28.9#94 |
| Yards per play | 4.81#132 | 5.43#106 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.44#124 | 5.48#44 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.6#115 | 191.9#35 |
| Net passing yards per game | 176.8#115 | 225.8#69 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 173.6#86 | 197.0#119 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 250.8#120 | 212.0#58 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#99 | 1.17#94 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#110 | 0.83#102 |
| Sacks per game | 1.83#86 | 1.92#75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83#76 | 1.92#84 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.16#134 | -0.02#100 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#125 | +0.00#66 |
| Success rate | 35.2%#132 | 41.0%#93 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.9%#113 | 41.5%#66 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.3%#131 | 12.0%#81 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.5%#132 | 11.6%#49 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#33 | 11.5%#100 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6%#128 | 13.0%#97 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.98#131 | 3.26#124 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.23#107 | 3.86#68 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#133 | own 28#115 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#104 | own 35#135 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.5#94 | 76.9#1 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12#132 | +0.03#70 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.20#132 | -0.06#103 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#91 | -0.04#36 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21#127 | +0.06#86 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.5%#127 | 42.8%#75 |
| Passing success rate | 34.1%#128 | 38.0%#104 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5%#73 | 22.0%#121 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.3%#133 | 28.8%#85 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.6%#95 | 31.2%#92 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.7%#112 | 37.8%#103 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.6%#102 | 44.4%#109 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5%#105 | 57.2%#97 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.0%#129 | 64.0%#96 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oklahoma State schedule · Tulsa schedule · all Week 1 projections
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