Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama 29.7, East Carolina 23.4 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Alabama wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.3 points and 53 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
East Carolina has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Alabama has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Alabama's elite defense (9th) should limit East Carolina's below-average offense (93rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Alabama's elite offense (5th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 39.1 points against an average defense) against East Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Carolina by 16 and Alabama by 29 about 80% of the time.
Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama by about 4.2. The game is on ABC.
Result: East Carolina 10, Alabama 48. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 31.7 points and the total by 5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (East Carolina / Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama -25.5 → Alabama -28.25 | 53.5 → 52.5 | +1600 / -6250 |
| Bovada | Alabama -25.5 → Alabama -28 | 53.5 → 52.5 | +1400 / -7500 |
| DraftKings | Alabama -25.5 → Alabama -28.5 | 52.5 | +1800 / -5000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Alabama win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama -6.5 | 53.0 | 66% |
| Market consensus | Alabama -28.5 | 52.5 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Alabama -25 | 53.1 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Alabama win probability
- model 66% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference -28 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama -6.3 · market Alabama -28.25 · difference -21.9 pts (Alabama view)
- Total
- model 53.0 · market 52.5 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 21.9 pts more toward East Carolina than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | East Carolina 23.4, Alabama 29.7 | Alabama 66%right winner | 31.7 | 5.0 |
| New formula | East Carolina 11.5, Alabama 41.3 | Alabama 96%right winner | 8.2 | 5.2 |
Final: East Carolina 10, Alabama 48. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
East Carolina vs Alabama: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | East Carolina | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.7#24 | 29.5#50 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.1#25 | 19.2#20 |
| Yards per play | 5.95#66 | 5.78#77 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46#43 | 5.25#29 |
| Rushing yards per game | 179.7#57 | 119.7#126 |
| Net passing yards per game | 274.9#20 | 260.7#30 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.2#25 | 144.5#39 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.7#98 | 171.7#10 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92#50 | 0.67#10 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.38#29 | 1.33#31 |
| Sacks per game | 2.31#43 | 2.20#55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#32 | 2.20#96 |
| Stat | East Carolina | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#47 | +0.03#65 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#21 | -0.06#35 |
| Success rate | 46.3%#25 | 43.0%#57 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.0%#24 | 37.8%#21 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#105 | 12.8%#59 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#73 | 11.4%#45 |
| Havoc rate | 14.5%#17 | 14.8%#15 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.3%#7 | 10.1%#19 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.86#80 | 4.36#30 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.06#10 | 3.95#79 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#32 | own 29#84 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#62 | own 29#56 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 76.5#2 | 65.8#74 |
| Stat | East Carolina | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03#96 | -0.06#113 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#27 | +0.11#39 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14#7 | -0.01#55 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03#51 | -0.10#29 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3%#58 | 40.2%#101 |
| Passing success rate | 48.0%#13 | 45.2%#30 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.4%#17 | 18.6%#75 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.2%#13 | 33.7%#31 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.7%#38 | 27.8%#41 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.7%#20 | 42.9%#51 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.3%#8 | 37.9%#42 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.0%#82 | 72.4%#16 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.4%#1 | 55.3%#35 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Carolina schedule · Alabama schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.