Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Auburn 30.8, Baylor 26.1 on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Auburn wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 56.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Baylor has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Auburn has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Auburn's strong defense (32nd) should limit Baylor's middle-of-the-pack offense (52nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.6 points against an average defense). Expect Auburn to find it hard going: Baylor's strong defense (41st) outranks Auburn's middle-of-the-pack offense (57th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Baylor by 18 and Auburn by 27 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ABC/Disney+.
Result: Baylor 16, Auburn 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.7 points and the total by 23.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Baylor / Auburn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Auburn -7 → Auburn -6.5 | 58.5 | +220 / -270 |
| Bovada | Auburn -7.5 → Auburn -6.5 | 58.5 | +220 / -270 |
| DraftKings | Auburn -6.5 | 58.5 | +220 / -270 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Auburn win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Auburn -4.5 | 56.9 | 62% |
| Market consensus | Auburn -6.5 | 58.5 | 70% |
| Blended projection | Auburn -6 | 58.5 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Auburn win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) 70% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Auburn -4.7 · market Auburn -6.5 · difference -1.8 pts (Auburn view)
- Total
- model 56.9 · market 58.5 · difference -1.6
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward Baylor than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Baylor 26.1, Auburn 30.8 | Auburn 62%right winner | 3.7 | 23.9 |
| New formula | Baylor 24.9, Auburn 31.1 | Auburn 64%right winner | 5.2 | 23.0 |
Final: Baylor 16, Auburn 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Baylor vs Auburn: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Baylor | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.1#33 | 26.8#74 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.6#122 | 20.7#34 |
| Yards per play | 6.10#48 | 5.68#83 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.86#73 | 5.16#21 |
| Rushing yards per game | 145.9#99 | 195.7#31 |
| Net passing yards per game | 315.3#4 | 190.1#102 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 202.8#124 | 111.0#7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 195.2#37 | 232.0#93 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.58#124 | 0.50#5 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#70 | 1.17#58 |
| Sacks per game | 0.92#132 | 2.58#23 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83#74 | 3.58#132 |
| Stat | Baylor | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#54 | +0.04#62 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#81 | -0.07#32 |
| Success rate | 44.7%#45 | 43.6%#52 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#107 | 37.8%#22 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8%#58 | 11.0%#112 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#30 | 11.8%#54 |
| Havoc rate | 10.1%#125 | 13.7%#39 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3%#45 | 14.2%#115 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.74#93 | 3.98#70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.61#130 | 3.63#44 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#52 | own 28#109 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#97 | own 30#75 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.7#3 | 67.9#50 |
| Stat | Baylor | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#57 | +0.11#24 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#62 | -0.04#100 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#107 | -0.21#3 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#57 | +0.07#89 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.0%#40 | 47.4%#28 |
| Passing success rate | 43.9%#37 | 39.7%#88 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1%#34 | 15.8%#28 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.1%#26 | 27.2%#108 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9%#61 | 30.9%#86 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.7%#72 | 40.4%#78 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.5%#54 | 37.9%#43 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.0%#89 | 51.3%#118 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.1%#103 | 59.0%#60 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Baylor schedule · Auburn schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.