Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Penn State 35.8, Marshall 22.2 at Beaver Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Penn State wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.6 points and 57.9 combined points.
Marshall has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Penn State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Penn State's strong defense (35th) should limit Marshall's below-average offense (108th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Penn State's middle-of-the-pack offense (53rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.3 points against an average defense) against Marshall's below-average defense (118th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Marshall by 9 and Penn State by 36 about 80% of the time.
Penn State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Penn State by about 11.5. The game is on FS1.
Result: Marshall 0, Penn State 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 31.4 points and the total by 12.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Marshall / Penn State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Penn State -23.5 → Penn State -23.25 | 54.5 → 52.75 | +1050 / -2650 |
| Bovada | Penn State -23.5 → Penn State -23 | 54.5 → 52 | +1100 / -3500 |
| DraftKings | Penn State -23.5 | 53.5 | +1000 / -1800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Penn State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Penn State -13.5 | 57.9 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Penn State -23.5 | 52.8 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Penn State -22 | 53.6 | 93% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Penn State win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Penn State -13.6 · market Penn State -23.25 · difference -9.6 pts (Penn State view)
- Total
- model 57.9 · market 52.75 · difference +5.1
Model margin is 9.6 pts more toward Marshall than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Marshall 22.2, Penn State 35.8 | Penn State 81%right winner | 31.4 | 12.9 |
| New formula | Marshall 20.0, Penn State 38.2 | Penn State 85%right winner | 26.8 | 13.2 |
Final: Marshall 0, Penn State 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Marshall vs Penn State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Marshall | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.8#38 | 31.0#34 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3#109 | 20.5#31 |
| Yards per play | 5.96#63 | 5.79#75 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.52#128 | 5.28#30 |
| Rushing yards per game | 201.1#27 | 176.7#61 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.8#78 | 176.8#114 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 177.4#89 | 148.8#42 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 296.5#136 | 171.5#9 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92#52 | 0.77#25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42#28 | 0.77#107 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33#37 | 2.23#46 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.42#33 | 1.38#30 |
| Stat | Marshall | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#66 | +0.08#40 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#54 | -0.03#45 |
| Success rate | 45.1%#42 | 46.1%#29 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3%#28 | 41.4%#64 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#33 | 10.4%#123 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6%#113 | 10.6%#33 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#32 | 13.4%#47 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3%#47 | 10.0%#18 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.11#49 | 4.40#25 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.59#42 | 3.82#64 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#13 | own 34#8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#45 | own 29#50 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.8#21 | 61.1#121 |
| Stat | Marshall | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#92 | +0.07#42 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11#40 | +0.08#50 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#11 | +0.01#69 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10#102 | -0.07#35 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.5%#64 | 47.2%#30 |
| Passing success rate | 47.0%#17 | 44.6%#33 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8%#45 | 16.0%#33 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0%#62 | 31.4%#57 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.4%#52 | 27.9%#42 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1%#110 | 44.9%#36 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.4%#81 | 40.4%#67 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.9%#110 | 67.3%#33 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.8%#28 | 59.1%#61 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Marshall schedule · Penn State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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