Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southern Miss 41.7, Alcorn State 10.7 at M. M. Roberts Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Southern Miss wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 31 points and 52.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Alcorn State is 1-0, scoring 56 and allowing 7 points per game (+49 per game). Southern Miss has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Alcorn State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Southern Miss's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Miss by 8 and Southern Miss by 54 about 80% of the time.
Southern Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Southern Miss by about 28.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Alcorn State 3, Southern Miss 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15 points and the total by 0.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alcorn State / Southern Miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southern Miss -20.5 → Southern Miss -20 | 50.5 → 51.25 | +825 / -1500 |
| DraftKings | Southern Miss -21 → Southern Miss -20.5 | 50.5 → 51.5 | +900 / -1600 |
| Bovada | Southern Miss -20 → Southern Miss -19.5 | 50.5 → 51 | +750 / -1400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern Miss win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southern Miss -31 | 52.4 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Southern Miss -20 | 51.3 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Southern Miss -22 | 52.0 | 93% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern Miss win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Southern Miss -31 · market Southern Miss -20 · difference +11.0 pts (Southern Miss view)
- Total
- model 52.4 · market 51.25 · difference +1.1
Model margin is 11.0 pts more toward Southern Miss than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alcorn State 10.7, Southern Miss 41.7 | Southern Miss 98%right winner | 15.0 | 0.4 |
| New formula | Alcorn State 21.5, Southern Miss 34.4 | Southern Miss 77%right winner | 33.1 | 3.9 |
Final: Alcorn State 3, Southern Miss 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alcorn State vs Southern Miss: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Alcorn State | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3 | 28.8#58 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.2 | 27.4#84 |
| Yards per play | 5.63 | 6.06#53 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.26 | 5.90#79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.8 | 146.5#97 |
| Net passing yards per game | 171.2 | 271.5#22 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.1 | 191.5#111 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.2 | 240.6#107 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.91 | 1.00#60 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 2.08#2 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 2.38#32 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.27 | 1.69#57 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.02#75 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | -0.07#29 |
| Success rate | 41.2% | 39.4%#110 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 40.7%#56 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1% | 12.2%#74 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 12.2%#64 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 13.0%#58 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 12.2%#74 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.37 | 4.04#60 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.91 | 4.09#96 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | own 30#60 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 29#52 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.1 | 69.0#37 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.04#103 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.07#54 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | -0.01#61 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.14#20 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.9% | 38.6%#113 |
| Passing success rate | 40.3% | 39.5%#91 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.8% | 18.5%#72 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.5% | 30.1%#75 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 29.4%#69 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.0% | 41.5%#61 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8% | 49.0%#133 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.6% | 61.9%#63 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.6% | 63.9%#94 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alcorn State schedule · Southern Miss schedule · all Week 1 projections
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