Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Old Dominion 49.5, Norfolk State 4.4 at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Old Dominion wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 45 points and 53.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Norfolk State is 1-0, scoring 56 and allowing 0 points per game (+56 per game). Old Dominion has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Norfolk State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Old Dominion's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Old Dominion by 22 and Old Dominion by 68 about 80% of the time.
Old Dominion gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Old Dominion by about 42.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Norfolk State 10, Old Dominion 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 24 points and the total by 12.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Norfolk State / Old Dominion) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Old Dominion -41.25 | 54 → 52.25 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Old Dominion -41.5 | 55.5 → 52.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Old Dominion -41 | 52.5 → 52 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Old Dominion win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Old Dominion -45 | 53.9 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Old Dominion -41.5 | 52.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Old Dominion -42 | 53.0 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Old Dominion win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Old Dominion -45 · market Old Dominion -41.25 · difference +3.8 pts (Old Dominion view)
- Total
- model 53.9 · market 52.25 · difference +1.6
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Old Dominion than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Norfolk State 4.4, Old Dominion 49.5 | Old Dominion 100%right winner | 24.0 | 12.9 |
| New formula | Norfolk State 9.0, Old Dominion 44.9 | Old Dominion 98%right winner | 14.9 | 12.9 |
Final: Norfolk State 10, Old Dominion 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Norfolk State vs Old Dominion: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Norfolk State | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.9 | 32.0#29 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.6 | 18.5#14 |
| Yards per play | 6.40 | 6.95#13 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.80 | 4.94#11 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.3 | 250.2#5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.9 | 220.5#79 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.3 | 160.7#67 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 221.3 | 181.6#20 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17 | 1.15#90 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83 | 1.46#21 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 2.92#7 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.42 | 1.54#44 |
| Stat | Norfolk State | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.06#49 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | -0.13#8 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 46.2%#27 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 38.0%#25 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9% | 16.2%#7 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 9.1%#8 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 14.4%#21 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 11.3%#48 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.26 | 3.85#83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.09 | 2.87#4 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 31#40 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 30#79 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.3 | 67.8#51 |
| Stat | Norfolk State | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.02#74 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.10#41 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.07#26 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11 | -0.20#7 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8% | 47.2%#32 |
| Passing success rate | 41.7% | 43.8%#40 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7% | 14.2%#12 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.1% | 34.7%#22 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.2% | 24.8%#13 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.9% | 43.6%#41 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.1% | 36.4%#31 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.4% | 53.8%#107 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.7% | 49.9%#16 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Norfolk State schedule · Old Dominion schedule · all Week 1 projections
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