Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Sacramento State 47.5, Mississippi Valley State 11.9 at Hornet Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Sacramento State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 35.6 points and 59.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Mississippi Valley State is 0-1, scoring 10 and allowing 44 points per game (-34 per game). Sacramento State is 0-1, scoring 17 and allowing 28 points per game (-11 per game).
Mississippi Valley State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Sacramento State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sacramento State by 13 and Sacramento State by 58 about 80% of the time.
Sacramento State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Sacramento State by about 33.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Mississippi Valley State 0, Sacramento State 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.4 points and the total by 7.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mississippi Valley State / Sacramento State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Sacramento State -35.5 → Sacramento State -38.5 | 56.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Sacramento State -35.5 → Sacramento State -38.5 | 56.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Sacramento State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Sacramento State -35.5 | 59.4 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Sacramento State -38.5 | 56.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Sacramento State -38.5 | 57.0 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Sacramento State win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Sacramento State -35.6 · market Sacramento State -38.5 · difference -2.9 pts (Sacramento State view)
- Total
- model 59.4 · market 56.5 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 2.9 pts more toward Mississippi Valley State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mississippi Valley State 11.9, Sacramento State 47.5 | Sacramento State 99%right winner | 16.4 | 7.4 |
| New formula | Mississippi Valley State 11.6, Sacramento State 46.2 | Sacramento State 98%right winner | 17.4 | 5.9 |
Final: Mississippi Valley State 0, Sacramento State 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mississippi Valley State vs Sacramento State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.3 | 33.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.7 | 26.3 |
| Yards per play | 4.73 | 6.64 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.46 | 5.56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 94.5 | 273.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.4 | 157.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.9 | 169.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 238.4 | 207.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.70 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80 | 1.33 |
| Sacks per game | 0.90 | 3.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.20 | 1.92 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.21 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 33.2% | 42.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.7% | 43.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 15.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 12.6% |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 20.1% | 11.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.31 | 3.19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.04 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3 | 64.9 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.24 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.2% | 45.4% |
| Passing success rate | 32.7% | 37.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 27.2% | 16.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.6% | 30.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.5% | 30.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.4% | 42.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.6% | 44.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.5% | 47.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 51.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mississippi Valley State schedule · Sacramento State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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