Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected LSU 25.1, Clemson 21.6 at Tiger Stadium (LA) in Week 1. That is a lean: LSU wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 46.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Clemson has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. LSU has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect Clemson to find it hard going: LSU's elite defense (8th) outranks Clemson's middle-of-the-pack offense (74th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense). LSU's elite offense (7th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Clemson's strong defense (30th); that mismatch is where most of LSU's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Clemson by 19 and LSU by 26 about 80% of the time.
LSU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour LSU by about 1.4. The game is on ABC.
Result: Clemson 10, LSU 51. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 37.5 points and the total by 14.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Clemson / LSU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | LSU -11.5 → LSU -10 | 51.5 → 49.25 | +335 / -445 |
| Bovada | LSU -11.5 → LSU -10 | 51.5 → 50 | +350 / -480 |
| DraftKings | LSU -10 | 48.5 | +320 / -410 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | LSU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | LSU -3.5 | 46.6 | 59% |
| Market consensus | LSU -10 | 49.3 | 78% |
| Blended projection | LSU -9 | 50.0 | 73% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- LSU win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 78% · difference -19 pts
- Margin
- model LSU -3.5 · market LSU -10 · difference -6.5 pts (LSU view)
- Total
- model 46.6 · market 49.25 · difference -2.6
Model margin is 6.5 pts more toward Clemson than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Clemson 21.6, LSU 25.1 | LSU 59%right winner | 37.5 | 14.4 |
| New formula | Clemson 21.9, LSU 28.7 | LSU 65%right winner | 34.2 | 10.5 |
Final: Clemson 10, LSU 51. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Clemson vs LSU: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Clemson | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.2#72 | 22.8#103 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.5#30 | 19.8#24 |
| Yards per play | 5.95#64 | 5.44#104 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.51#47 | 5.41#39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 137.2#112 | 121.1#124 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.2#26 | 219.8#80 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 120.4#13 | 139.4#32 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 245.2#115 | 211.5#56 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#75 | 0.85#39 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08#63 | 1.54#16 |
| Sacks per game | 2.62#20 | 1.92#76 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.46#34 | 2.23#100 |
| Stat | Clemson | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#86 | -0.03#107 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#42 | -0.11#11 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#63 | 38.8%#114 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.8%#15 | 38.9%#35 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#71 | 11.1%#110 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4%#67 | 12.9%#86 |
| Havoc rate | 15.0%#11 | 14.5%#19 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.2%#20 | 14.2%#116 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.07#54 | 3.59#111 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.12#11 | 3.43#25 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#44 | own 30#51 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#16 | own 28#25 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5#55 | 62.7#111 |
| Stat | Clemson | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#130 | -0.08#121 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#46 | +0.01#82 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#44 | -0.11#14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#48 | -0.12#25 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.3%#86 | 37.2%#121 |
| Passing success rate | 42.6%#53 | 40.0%#86 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5%#39 | 23.9%#135 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#94 | 31.0%#61 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.8%#39 | 28.9%#63 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.9%#118 | 38.0%#100 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.8%#18 | 37.3%#40 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.1%#98 | 52.4%#113 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.3%#91 | 62.9%#88 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Clemson schedule · LSU schedule · all Week 1 projections
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