Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eastern Michigan 32.3, Sacramento State 28 at Rynearson Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Eastern Michigan wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 60.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Sacramento State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Eastern Michigan has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Eastern Michigan's below-average defense (108th) should limit Sacramento State's struggling offense (139th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 12.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Eastern Michigan's below-average offense (114th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense) against Sacramento State's struggling defense (139th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sacramento State by 18 and Eastern Michigan by 27 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eastern Michigan by about 2.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Sacramento State 17, Eastern Michigan 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.7 points and the total by 15.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Sacramento State / Eastern Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Eastern Michigan -8.5 → Eastern Michigan -9.25 | 52.5 → 52.75 | +272.5 / -342.5 |
| Bovada | Eastern Michigan -8.5 → Eastern Michigan -9 | 52.5 → 53 | +265 / -330 |
| DraftKings | Eastern Michigan -8.5 → Eastern Michigan -9.5 | 52.5 | +280 / -355 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Eastern Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Eastern Michigan -4.5 | 60.2 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Eastern Michigan -9.5 | 52.8 | 74% |
| Blended projection | Eastern Michigan -8.5 | 53.8 | 72% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Eastern Michigan win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference -13 pts
- Margin
- model Eastern Michigan -4.3 · market Eastern Michigan -9.25 · difference -4.9 pts (Eastern Michigan view)
- Total
- model 60.2 · market 52.75 · difference +7.5
Model margin is 4.9 pts more toward Sacramento State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Sacramento State 28.0, Eastern Michigan 32.3 | Eastern Michigan 61%right winner | 6.7 | 15.2 |
| New formula | Sacramento State 23.0, Eastern Michigan 36.1 | Eastern Michigan 78%right winner | 2.2 | 14.1 |
Final: Sacramento State 17, Eastern Michigan 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Sacramento State vs Eastern Michigan: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Sacramento State | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.8 | 24.1#92 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 29.8#102 |
| Yards per play | 6.64 | 5.98#62 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.56 | 6.43#123 |
| Rushing yards per game | 273.3 | 150.5#88 |
| Net passing yards per game | 157.8 | 253.7#40 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.3 | 245.7#136 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.6 | 198.3#39 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 1.08#85 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 0.75#115 |
| Sacks per game | 3.25 | 1.17#127 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92 | 0.83#7 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.07#44 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.14#131 |
| Success rate | 42.0% | 42.6%#62 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 45.1%#118 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1% | 12.2%#75 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6% | 15.4%#131 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 9.8%#127 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6% | 9.4%#10 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.19 | 4.33#31 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.04 | 4.10#98 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 25#136 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 31#100 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9 | 67.6#54 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.04#63 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.09#43 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.10#123 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.20#126 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.4% | 44.4%#57 |
| Passing success rate | 37.0% | 39.9%#87 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6% | 17.9%#63 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1% | 31.6%#55 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9% | 36.4%#129 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.4% | 42.2%#54 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.4% | 46.8%#126 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.9% | 63.0%#53 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.3% | 67.9%#116 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sacramento State schedule · Eastern Michigan schedule · all Week 1 projections
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