Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama 33, Florida State 20.5 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Alabama wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.5 points and 53.4 combined points.
Florida State is 1-1, scoring 29 and allowing 22 points per game (+7 per game). Alabama (No. 10) is 2-0, scoring 46.5 and allowing 13.5 points per game (+33 per game).
Alabama's elite defense (4th) should limit Florida State's middle-of-the-pack offense (42nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.1 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Alabama's elite offense (6th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.5 points against an average defense) against Florida State's strong defense (41st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida State by 10 and Alabama by 35 about 80% of the time.
Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama by about 10.4. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Florida State 36, Alabama 50. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.5 points and the total by 32.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida State / Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama -18 → Alabama -18.5 | 50.75 → 50.25 | +787.5 / -1425 |
| DraftKings | Alabama -15.5 → Alabama -18.5 | 52.5 → 50.5 | +800 / -1350 |
| Bovada | Alabama -20.5 → Alabama -18.5 | 49 → 50 | +775 / -1500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Alabama win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama -12.5 | 53.4 | 79% |
| Market consensus | Alabama -18.5 | 50.3 | 89% |
| Blended projection | Alabama -17.5 | 51.2 | 88% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Alabama win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama -12.5 · market Alabama -18.5 · difference -6.0 pts (Alabama view)
- Total
- model 53.4 · market 50.25 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 6.0 pts more toward Florida State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida State 20.5, Alabama 33.0 | Alabama 79%right winner | 1.5 | 32.6 |
| New formula | Florida State 14.2, Alabama 40.3 | Alabama 95%right winner | 12.1 | 31.6 |
Final: Florida State 36, Alabama 50. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida State vs Alabama: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Florida State | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.0#81 | 46.5#21 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0#77 | 13.5#35 |
| Yards per play | 5.62#103 | 5.79#91 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.98#127 | 4.29#24 |
| Rushing yards per game | 224.0#35 | 207.5#45 |
| Net passing yards per game | 150.0#125 | 203.5#89 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 113.5#53 | 54.5#3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 347.5#137 | 164.5#43 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#44 | 2.00#125 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#10 | 1.50#21 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#110 | 3.50#10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#88 | 2.50#104 |
| Stat | Florida State | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#55 | +0.08#77 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#128 | -0.15#10 |
| Success rate | 40.6%#98 | 45.8%#40 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5%#122 | 34.5%#24 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#86 | 13.7%#50 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#104 | 11.0%#57 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1%#106 | 16.4%#34 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#50 | 15.0%#105 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.27#12 | 4.53#41 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.00#19 | 4.19#98 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#93 | own 35#25 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#34 | own 26#42 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.5#67 | 71.0#33 |
| Stat | Florida State | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#78 | +0.15#33 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20#38 | -0.01#103 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#26 | -0.18#14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.37#130 | -0.12#25 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.6%#66 | 56.3%#16 |
| Passing success rate | 33.3%#122 | 45.3%#59 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.9%#28 | 17.3%#74 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.3%#53 | 31.1%#76 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 40.8%#129 | 26.5%#47 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.7%#98 | 50.0%#32 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 58.1%#135 | 8.7%#1 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#28 | 64.3%#70 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20.0%#7 | 63.9%#87 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida State schedule · Alabama schedule · all Week 3 projections
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