Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisville 30, Florida State 28.6 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Louisville wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 58.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Florida State is 3-2, scoring 33.2 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+11.6 per game). Louisville is 2-3, scoring 38.6 and allowing 29.2 points per game (+9.4 per game).
Florida State's strong offense (31st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Louisville's middle-of-the-pack defense (59th); that mismatch is where most of Florida State's projected points come from. Louisville's strong offense (28th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.2 points against an average defense) meets Florida State's strong defense (31st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Louisville puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida State by 21 and Louisville by 24 about 80% of the time.
Louisville gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Florida State would be favoured by 0.7. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Florida State 20, Louisville 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 22.6 points and the total by 5.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida State / Louisville) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisville -4.75 → Louisville -4.25 | 58.5 → 60.5 | +175 / -211 |
| Bovada | Louisville -6 → Louisville -4.5 | 57.5 → 60.5 | +190 / -230 |
| DraftKings | Louisville -3.5 → Louisville -4 | 59.5 → 60.5 | +160 / -192 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisville win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisville -1.5 | 58.6 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Louisville -4.5 | 60.5 | 65% |
| Blended projection | Louisville -4 | 60.4 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisville win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Louisville -1.4 · market Louisville -4.25 · difference -2.8 pts (Louisville view)
- Total
- model 58.6 · market 60.5 · difference -1.9
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Florida State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida State 28.6, Louisville 30.0 | Louisville 54%right winner | 22.6 | 5.4 |
| New formula | Florida State 29.8, Louisville 29.2 | Florida State 52%wrong winner | 24.6 | 5.1 |
Final: Florida State 20, Louisville 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida State vs Louisville: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Florida State | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.2#58 | 38.6#23 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.6#56 | 29.2#113 |
| Yards per play | 6.85#31 | 7.66#5 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.62#74 | 5.86#95 |
| Rushing yards per game | 212.8#33 | 208.8#34 |
| Net passing yards per game | 212.2#80 | 274.0#32 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 143.2#59 | 162.8#84 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.6#108 | 257.8#124 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20#95 | 0.40#28 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#74 | 1.20#43 |
| Sacks per game | 3.20#10 | 1.60#92 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.40#103 | 2.00#93 |
| Stat | Florida State | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#22 | +0.28#6 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17#122 | +0.11#105 |
| Success rate | 44.8%#55 | 48.7%#20 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7%#95 | 40.6%#69 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.6%#4 | 18.8%#1 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#93 | 11.3%#57 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#49 | 11.6%#120 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#52 | 14.8%#106 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.13#8 | 4.69#31 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.24#22 | 3.93#79 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#108 | own 29#77 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#37 | own 28#67 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.0#103 | 63.0#96 |
| Stat | Florida State | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.19#16 | +0.23#8 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.24#34 | +0.32#16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#41 | -0.03#42 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.35#132 | +0.25#122 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.7%#57 | 48.3%#37 |
| Passing success rate | 42.4%#77 | 49.0%#28 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.9%#28 | 18.8%#97 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.5%#10 | 31.3%#76 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.4%#64 | 33.6%#111 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.1%#56 | 44.8%#53 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.5%#93 | 35.2%#44 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 81.0%#5 | 70.6%#32 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#36 | 50.0%#39 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida State schedule · Louisville schedule · all Week 6 projections
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