Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami 40.6, Florida State 16.5 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Miami wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 24.1 points and 57 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Florida State is 3-3, scoring 31 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+5.7 per game). Miami (No. 3) is 5-0, scoring 49.6 and allowing 9.8 points per game (+39.8 per game).
Miami's elite defense (2nd) should limit Florida State's strong offense (34th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.1 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Miami's elite offense (2nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 42.4 points against an average defense) against Florida State's strong defense (38th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami by 2 and Miami by 47 about 80% of the time.
Miami gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Miami by about 22. The game is on ESPN/Disney+.
Result: Florida State 35, Miami 43. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.1 points and the total by 21.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida State / Miami) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami -18.75 → Miami -20.25 | 55 → 57 | +850 / -1600 |
| DraftKings | Miami -16.5 → Miami -20.5 | 53.5 → 57.5 | +900 / -1600 |
| Bovada | Miami -21 → Miami -20 | 56.5 | +800 / -1600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Miami win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami -24 | 57.0 | 94% |
| Market consensus | Miami -20.5 | 57.0 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Miami -21 | 57.3 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Miami win probability
- model 94% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Miami -24.1 · market Miami -20.25 · difference +3.9 pts (Miami view)
- Total
- model 57.0 · market 57 · difference 0.0
Model margin is 3.9 pts more toward Miami than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida State 16.5, Miami 40.6 | Miami 94%right winner | 16.1 | 21.0 |
| New formula | Florida State 16.2, Miami 40.1 | Miami 94%right winner | 15.9 | 21.7 |
Final: Florida State 35, Miami 43. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida State vs Miami: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Florida State | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0#62 | 49.6#1 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3#83 | 9.8#1 |
| Yards per play | 6.43#52 | 8.24#1 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.15#107 | 4.51#9 |
| Rushing yards per game | 205.8#37 | 225.0#24 |
| Net passing yards per game | 208.7#86 | 325.4#7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 186.3#110 | 61.8#1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 224.7#95 | 205.2#74 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17#98 | 0.20#12 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#94 | 0.60#111 |
| Sacks per game | 2.83#19 | 3.00#15 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#120 | 1.00#28 |
| Stat | Florida State | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#27 | +0.29#4 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22#131 | -0.03#33 |
| Success rate | 44.8%#55 | 53.2%#4 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8%#113 | 38.5%#40 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.8%#11 | 15.5%#20 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5%#105 | 10.2%#33 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5%#85 | 14.6%#56 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#67 | 9.5%#11 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.84#16 | 5.01#12 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.39#36 | 2.68#3 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#113 | own 29#80 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#47 | own 26#17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.5#83 | 66.8#55 |
| Stat | Florida State | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#12 | +0.15#35 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#43 | +0.42#4 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#101 | -0.10#15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.34#134 | +0.01#53 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.5%#35 | 53.0%#9 |
| Passing success rate | 40.4%#88 | 62.1%#1 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.5%#23 | 13.6%#24 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.2%#16 | 33.5%#51 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.2%#82 | 27.5%#51 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.4%#59 | 48.9%#24 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0%#94 | 33.8%#35 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 79.2%#6 | 67.4%#50 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.6%#55 | 46.3%#20 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida State schedule · Miami schedule · all Week 7 projections
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