Matchup analysis
Our model projects Florida State 28, Clemson 21 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Florida State wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.9 points and 49.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Clemson is 4-3 against the 24th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.4 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+0.1 per game). Florida State is 3-4 against the 13th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 27.9 points per game (+3.7 per game).
Expect Clemson to find it hard going: Florida State's middle-of-the-pack defense (46th) outranks Clemson's middle-of-the-pack offense (74th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense). Florida State's strong offense (25th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense) meets Clemson's strong defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Clemson by 16 and Florida State by 29 about 80% of the time.
Florida State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida State by about 4.8. The game is on ACC Network.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Clemson / Florida State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida State -6 | 49.5 | +180 / -220 |
| DraftKings | Florida State -6 | 49.5 | +180 / -218 |
| FanDuel | Florida State -6.5 | 50.5 | +180 / -220 |
| BetRivers | Florida State -6 | 49.5 | +180 / -230 |
| BetMGM | Florida State -5.5 | 50.5 | +180 / -220 |
| theScore Bet | Florida State -6.5 | 50.5 | +175 / -210 |
| Pinnacle | Florida State -6 | 49.5 | +181 / -214 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Florida State -5.5 | 49.5 | +180 / -225 |
| Bovada | Florida State -5.5 | 49.5 | +180 / -220 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida State -7 | 49.9 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Florida State -6 | 49.5 | 66% |
| Blended projection | Florida State -6 | 50.4 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida State win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Florida State -6.9 · market Florida State -6 · difference +0.9 pts (Florida State view)
- Total
- model 49.9 · market 49.5 · difference +0.4
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Florida State 67%.
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward Florida State than the market.
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Clemson vs Florida State: stat comparison
| Stat | Clemson | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.4#112 | 31.6#51 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3#52 | 27.9#103 |
| Yards per play | 5.24#123 | 6.46#37 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.80#14 | 6.31#116 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.3#80 | 193.7#40 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.7#107 | 221.4#72 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.9#57 | 196.9#116 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 171.0#20 | 235.6#108 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#108 | 1.14#104 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#116 | 0.71#92 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86#16 | 2.57#25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#131 | 2.57#116 |
| Stat | Clemson | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#132 | +0.17#33 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#24 | +0.20#129 |
| Success rate | 37.1%#129 | 43.1%#69 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6%#66 | 44.7%#116 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6%#123 | 15.6%#14 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#31 | 14.1%#118 |
| Havoc rate | 17.0%#13 | 12.4%#108 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#113 | 12.1%#42 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.23#126 | 4.70#28 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.17#16 | 3.70#56 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#31 | own 29#78 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#18 | own 28#43 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.1#59 | 64.3#84 |
| Stat | Clemson | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#91 | +0.13#39 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16#134 | +0.23#25 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#80 | +0.07#88 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#11 | +0.34#133 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.3%#117 | 45.9%#51 |
| Passing success rate | 36.0%#120 | 39.9%#89 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0%#99 | 12.6%#11 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1%#86 | 38.9%#13 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.9%#123 | 30.9%#88 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.3%#129 | 42.7%#57 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#24 | 42.9%#108 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 40.9%#135 | 75.0%#12 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8%#71 | 62.5%#85 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Clemson schedule · Florida State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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