Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Boston College 28.9, Rutgers 28.5 at Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Boston College wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 57.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Rutgers is 0-1, scoring 21 and allowing 37 points per game (-16 per game). Boston College is 0-1, scoring 15 and allowing 34 points per game (-19 per game).
Rutgers's middle-of-the-pack offense (75th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) meets Boston College's below-average defense (86th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Rutgers puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Boston College's below-average offense (92nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) against Rutgers's below-average defense (117th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rutgers by 22 and Boston College by 23 about 80% of the time.
Boston College gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Rutgers would be favoured by 1.7. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Rutgers 21, Boston College 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.6 points and the total by 8.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Rutgers / Boston College) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Boston College -3.5 → Boston College -3 | 54.5 → 53.5 | +134.5 / -159 |
| DraftKings | Boston College -3.5 → Boston College -3 | 53.5 | +124 / -148 |
| Bovada | Boston College -3.5 → Boston College -3 | 54.5 → 53.5 | +145 / -170 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Boston College win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Boston College -0.5 | 57.4 | 51% |
| Market consensus | Boston College -3 | 53.5 | 59% |
| Blended projection | Boston College -2.5 | 54.2 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Boston College win probability
- model 51% · market (no-vig) 59% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Boston College -0.4 · market Boston College -3 · difference -2.6 pts (Boston College view)
- Total
- model 57.4 · market 53.5 · difference +3.9
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Rutgers than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rutgers 28.5, Boston College 28.9 | Boston College 51%right winner | 6.6 | 8.4 |
| New formula | Rutgers 24.7, Boston College 33.6 | Boston College 70%right winner | 1.9 | 9.3 |
Final: Rutgers 21, Boston College 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Rutgers vs Boston College: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Rutgers | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.7#59 | 25.4#85 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.8#117 | 32.8#123 |
| Yards per play | 5.86#70 | 5.82#72 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.73#136 | 6.51#126 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.2#74 | 126.5#119 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.3#36 | 280.8#15 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 214.6#128 | 183.3#97 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 235.1#100 | 253.2#122 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.58#7 | 1.42#113 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#98 | 0.58#122 |
| Sacks per game | 0.92#133 | 1.17#123 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.25#128 | 3.08#126 |
| Stat | Rutgers | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#21 | +0.00#87 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.21#136 | +0.11#123 |
| Success rate | 46.4%#22 | 42.5%#64 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.6%#128 | 43.0%#89 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#67 | 11.5%#95 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 17.9%#136 | 13.1%#91 |
| Havoc rate | 11.6%#95 | 12.1%#81 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7%#91 | 14.2%#113 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.03#63 | 3.80#88 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.69#132 | 3.97#82 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#113 | own 29#97 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#29 | own 32#124 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.8#14 | 70.0#27 |
| Stat | Rutgers | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#56 | -0.06#110 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21#13 | +0.04#66 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16#135 | +0.04#94 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.27#133 | +0.18#124 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.0%#41 | 41.4%#92 |
| Passing success rate | 46.8%#18 | 43.2%#47 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8%#19 | 16.6%#41 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.5%#20 | 30.7%#70 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.4%#120 | 33.0%#111 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.6%#52 | 39.3%#90 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.2%#77 | 42.5%#95 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.7%#70 | 61.9%#64 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.3%#111 | 56.8%#46 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rutgers schedule · Boston College schedule · all Week 2 projections
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