Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami 48.2, Florida A&M 0 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Miami wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 48.2 points and 48.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Florida A&M is 1-1, scoring 16.5 and allowing 19 points per game (-2.5 per game). Miami (No. 7) is 1-0, scoring 45 and allowing 6 points per game (+39 per game).
Florida A&M plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Miami's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami by 26 and Miami by 71 about 80% of the time.
Miami gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Miami by about 46.1. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Florida A&M 7, Miami 77. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.8 points and the total by 35.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida A&M / Miami) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami -56 → Miami -59.5 | 62.5 → 65.75 | — / — |
| Bovada | Miami -56.5 → Miami -59.5 | 62.5 → 65 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Miami -55.5 → Miami -59.5 | 62.5 → 66.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Miami win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami -48 | 48.2 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Miami -59.5 | 65.8 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Miami -58 | 64.3 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Miami win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Miami -48.2 · market Miami -59.5 · difference -11.3 pts (Miami view)
- Total
- model 48.2 · market 65.75 · difference -17.5
Model margin is 11.3 pts more toward Florida A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida A&M 0.0, Miami 48.2 | Miami 100%right winner | 21.8 | 35.8 |
| New formula | Florida A&M -9.8, Miami 58.9 | Miami 100%right winner | 1.3 | 34.9 |
Final: Florida A&M 7, Miami 77. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida A&M vs Miami: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Florida A&M | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3 | 30.9#35 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.8 | 14.8#5 |
| Yards per play | 5.56 | 6.16#42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.51 | 5.10#18 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.9 | 157.3#80 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.0 | 248.1#48 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 194.9 | 113.6#9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 240.1 | 206.6#49 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.70 | 0.94#59 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.30 | 1.44#22 |
| Sacks per game | 1.10 | 3.19#3 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.20 | 1.19#17 |
| Stat | Florida A&M | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.11#29 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18 | -0.10#15 |
| Success rate | 38.3% | 46.9%#19 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.3% | 36.9%#17 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.0% | 12.3%#73 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 10.1%#25 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9% | 16.4%#6 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3% | 10.6%#27 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.24 | 4.41#23 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.64 | 3.44#26 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | own 31#31 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | own 25#1 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.6 | 65.8#72 |
| Stat | Florida A&M | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.01#80 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.21#15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | -0.00#64 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.27 | -0.17#14 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8% | 45.3%#49 |
| Passing success rate | 38.6% | 48.5%#11 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.3% | 14.3%#15 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4% | 33.7%#29 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.6% | 27.8%#40 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.1% | 46.2%#29 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.1% | 32.9%#11 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.8% | 74.1%#10 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.1% | 54.3%#30 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida A&M schedule · Miami schedule · all Week 2 projections
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