Matchup analysis
Our model projects Miami 39, North Carolina 15 at Kenan Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Miami wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 24.3 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Miami (No. 1) is 7-0 against the 72nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 49 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+33.7 per game). North Carolina is 4-3 against the 10th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+3.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Miami's elite offense (1st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43 points against an average defense) against North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th). Miami's elite defense (4th) should limit North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami by 47 and Miami by 2 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Miami is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Miami / North Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami -14.5 | 52.5 | -675 / +481 |
| DraftKings | Miami -14.5 | 52.5 | -675 / +490 |
| FanDuel | Miami -14.5 | 51.5 | -670 / +470 |
| BetRivers | Miami -14.5 | 52 | -835 / +510 |
| BetMGM | Miami -14.5 | 52.5 | -650 / +500 |
| theScore Bet | Miami -14.5 | 52.5 | -700 / +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Miami -14.5 | 52.5 | -750 / +525 |
| Pinnacle | Miami -15 | 53 | -669 / +472 |
| Bovada | Miami -14.5 | 53 | -675 / +460 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami -24.5 | 54.1 | 6% |
| Market consensus | Miami -14.5 | 52.5 | 16% |
| Blended projection | Miami -16 | 53.2 | 14% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina win probability
- model 6% · market (no-vig) 16% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Miami -24.3 · market Miami -14.5 · difference -9.8 pts (North Carolina view)
- Total
- model 54.1 · market 52.5 · difference +1.6
Model margin is 9.8 pts more toward Miami than the market.
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Miami vs North Carolina: stat comparison
| Stat | Miami | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 49.0#1 | 24.4#97 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.3#11 | 20.9#43 |
| Yards per play | 7.83#2 | 5.82#88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.02#26 | 5.23#41 |
| Rushing yards per game | 219.0#20 | 126.0#123 |
| Net passing yards per game | 326.7#5 | 215.6#81 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 72.6#1 | 169.9#93 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.9#101 | 211.1#81 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.29#12 | 1.00#91 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#115 | 1.00#58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.71#20 | 2.00#71 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#37 | 2.14#95 |
| Stat | Miami | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.31#2 | +0.03#101 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#36 | +0.04#69 |
| Success rate | 53.1%#2 | 45.6%#42 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.3%#27 | 43.0%#94 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.4%#8 | 11.6%#98 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#51 | 7.3%#4 |
| Havoc rate | 12.3%#110 | 11.2%#126 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.4%#3 | 12.4%#49 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.21#3 | 4.59#33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.94#7 | 3.38#30 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#68 | own 30#64 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#48 | own 31#116 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.7#28 | 58.7#129 |
| Stat | Miami | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#48 | +0.02#100 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.50#2 | +0.04#91 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.24#1 | +0.06#81 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11#90 | +0.03#64 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.3%#38 | 44.7%#67 |
| Passing success rate | 59.2%#1 | 46.3%#35 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.5%#2 | 16.4%#58 |
| Passing-down success rate | 41.0%#9 | 31.4%#68 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7%#82 | 23.6%#8 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 53.9%#10 | 44.0%#47 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.4%#29 | 42.7%#107 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 73.9%#18 | 65.2%#55 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.1%#12 | 50.0%#34 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Miami schedule · North Carolina schedule · all Week 9 projections
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