Matchup analysis
Our model projects Louisville 40, Stanford 18 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Louisville wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 22.7 points and 58.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Stanford is 4-4 against the 33rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.9 and allowing 35.5 points per game (-15.6 per game). Louisville is 4-3 against the 35th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.7 and allowing 27.4 points per game (+11.3 per game).
Louisville's middle-of-the-pack defense (48th) should limit Stanford's below-average offense (105th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Louisville's strong offense (20th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.7 points against an average defense) against Stanford's below-average defense (115th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between a tie and Louisville by 45 about 80% of the time.
Louisville gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisville by about 20.6. The game is on ACC Network.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stanford / Louisville) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisville -22.5 | 61.5 | +1050 / -2300 |
| FanDuel | Louisville -22.5 | 61.5 | +1160 / -2800 |
| theScore Bet | Louisville -22.5 | 61.5 | +1100 / -2500 |
| BetRivers | Louisville -21.5 | 61.5 | +1000 / -2500 |
| BetMGM | Louisville -22.5 | 61.5 | +1200 / -2000 |
| DraftKings | Louisville -22.5 | 61.5 | +1100 / -2100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Louisville -21.5 | 61.5 | +1000 / -2500 |
| Pinnacle | Louisville -22.5 | 61.5 | +969 / -1800 |
| Bovada | Louisville -22.5 | 61.5 | +900 / -1900 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisville win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisville -22.5 | 58.3 | 93% |
| Market consensus | Louisville -22.5 | 61.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Louisville -22.5 | 61.2 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisville win probability
- model 93% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Louisville -22.7 · market Louisville -22.5 · difference +0.2 pts (Louisville view)
- Total
- model 58.3 · market 61.5 · difference -3.2
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Louisville 94%.
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Stanford vs Louisville: stat comparison
| Stat | Stanford | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.9#124 | 38.7#11 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.5#132 | 27.4#99 |
| Yards per play | 5.63#103 | 7.85#1 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.52#125 | 5.68#73 |
| Rushing yards per game | 127.0#122 | 227.6#13 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.3#55 | 257.9#37 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.1#117 | 163.0#88 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.8#120 | 257.3#125 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63#41 | 0.57#38 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#101 | 1.29#25 |
| Sacks per game | 0.88#134 | 2.43#44 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.63#57 | 2.00#84 |
| Stat | Stanford | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#82 | +0.29#4 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.21#130 | +0.10#102 |
| Success rate | 40.0%#111 | 48.9%#19 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.0%#130 | 41.9%#81 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#90 | 18.5%#1 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1%#130 | 10.9%#46 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#127 | 13.7%#72 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#31 | 15.6%#122 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.81#92 | 4.74#25 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.50#138 | 3.74#62 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#136 | own 29#81 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#96 | own 29#64 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#79 | 61.9#109 |
| Stat | Stanford | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#119 | +0.27#2 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#52 | +0.31#12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.18#132 | +0.03#67 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.24#123 | +0.17#110 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2%#105 | 48.8%#23 |
| Passing success rate | 39.7%#93 | 49.0%#20 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#94 | 21.9%#129 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8%#126 | 33.6%#41 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.4%#131 | 33.1%#112 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.2%#106 | 45.0%#36 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.0%#130 | 35.0%#34 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.0%#80 | 75.0%#13 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 83.9%#137 | 48.1%#28 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stanford schedule · Louisville schedule · all Week 9 projections
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