Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia Tech 28.5, Stanford 22.8 at Stanford Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Georgia Tech wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 51.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Georgia Tech is 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 23.3 points per game (+3.7 per game). Stanford is 1-2, scoring 16.7 and allowing 35.7 points per game (-19 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (73rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense) against Stanford's below-average defense (107th). Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (66th) should limit Stanford's below-average offense (111th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia Tech by 28 and Stanford by 17 about 80% of the time.
Stanford gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Georgia Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Georgia Tech 27, Stanford 34. Stanford won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 12.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia Tech / Stanford) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia Tech -4 → Georgia Tech -3 | 48.25 → 48.75 | -165 / +140 |
| DraftKings | Georgia Tech -4.5 → Georgia Tech -3 | 48.5 | -155 / +130 |
| Bovada | Georgia Tech -3.5 → Georgia Tech -3 | 48 → 49 | -175 / +150 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stanford win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia Tech -5.5 | 51.3 | 35% |
| Market consensus | Georgia Tech -3 | 48.8 | 40% |
| Blended projection | Georgia Tech -3.5 | 49.8 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stanford win probability
- model 35% · market (no-vig) 40% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia Tech -5.7 · market Georgia Tech -3 · difference -2.7 pts (Stanford view)
- Total
- model 51.3 · market 48.75 · difference +2.5
Model margin is 2.7 pts more toward Georgia Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgia Tech 28.5, Stanford 22.8 | Georgia Tech 65%wrong winner | 12.7 | 9.7 |
| New formula | Georgia Tech 28.7, Stanford 23.2 | Georgia Tech 64%wrong winner | 12.6 | 9.1 |
Final: Georgia Tech 27, Stanford 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Georgia Tech vs Stanford: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.0#94 | 16.7#129 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.3#75 | 35.7#125 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#88 | 5.28#111 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.32#67 | 6.37#115 |
| Rushing yards per game | 134.7#112 | 118.3#128 |
| Net passing yards per game | 234.3#65 | 223.0#78 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 236.0#134 | 149.3#83 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 113.7#6 | 298.7#131 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#54 | 0.33#22 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#86 | 0.67#87 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#74 | 0.67#127 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#114 | 1.67#77 |
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#73 | +0.02#102 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14#117 | +0.23#130 |
| Success rate | 46.4%#36 | 40.5%#106 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9%#109 | 47.3%#126 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.1%#19 | 12.2%#91 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3%#81 | 15.4%#124 |
| Havoc rate | 11.8%#111 | 9.9%#129 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9%#106 | 12.2%#53 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.61#112 | 3.46#119 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.60#50 | 5.65#135 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#87 | own 24#136 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#86 | own 27#49 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.7#103 | 64.7#80 |
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#93 | +0.07#76 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#65 | -0.01#99 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.19#126 | +0.04#82 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#77 | +0.39#133 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.8%#52 | 45.0%#73 |
| Passing success rate | 46.2%#50 | 37.5%#106 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9%#115 | 16.9%#73 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.1%#66 | 21.3%#130 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.8%#122 | 38.3%#125 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8%#101 | 34.1%#122 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.2%#111 | 48.7%#125 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.5%#125 | 62.5%#83 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#36 | 81.8%#126 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia Tech schedule · Stanford schedule · all Week 4 projections
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