Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Syracuse 28.3, California 26.4 at JMA Wireless Dome in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Syracuse wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 54.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
California is 0-1, scoring 24 and allowing 45 points per game (-21 per game). Syracuse is 1-0, scoring 66 and allowing 3 points per game (+63 per game).
Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack defense (64th) should limit California's below-average offense (98th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.1 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Syracuse's strong offense (41st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.2 points against an average defense) against California's below-average defense (113th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between California by 21 and Syracuse by 24 about 80% of the time.
Syracuse gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field California would be favoured by 0.2. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: California 21, Syracuse 18. California won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 4.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (California / Syracuse) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Syracuse -0.75 → Syracuse -4 | 54.25 → 56.75 | +152 / -181.5 |
| DraftKings | California -1.5 → Syracuse -4 | 52.5 → 56.5 | +164 / -198 |
| Bovada | Syracuse -3 → Syracuse -4 | 56 → 57 | +140 / -165 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Syracuse win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Syracuse -2 | 54.6 | 55% |
| Market consensus | Syracuse -4 | 56.8 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Syracuse -3.5 | 56.9 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Syracuse win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Syracuse -1.9 · market Syracuse -4 · difference -2.1 pts (Syracuse view)
- Total
- model 54.6 · market 56.75 · difference -2.1
Model margin is 2.1 pts more toward California than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | California 26.4, Syracuse 28.3 | Syracuse 55%wrong winner | 4.9 | 15.6 |
| New formula | California 20.4, Syracuse 39.3 | Syracuse 87%wrong winner | 21.9 | 20.7 |
Final: California 21, Syracuse 18. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
California vs Syracuse: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | California | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.3#86 | 20.2#118 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.2#83 | 34.9#130 |
| Yards per play | 5.55#97 | 5.28#113 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.62#51 | 6.66#130 |
| Rushing yards per game | 106.7#134 | 143.5#103 |
| Net passing yards per game | 280.0#16 | 222.8#74 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.1#78 | 183.0#96 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 201.4#43 | 246.3#116 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.77#27 | 1.75#133 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85#96 | 0.83#104 |
| Sacks per game | 1.46#108 | 1.33#117 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.31#106 | 2.83#123 |
| Stat | California | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#82 | -0.10#126 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#70 | +0.07#108 |
| Success rate | 41.6%#85 | 36.9%#125 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7%#71 | 45.7%#123 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#87 | 11.0%#114 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#55 | 14.5%#124 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#85 | 11.1%#109 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.7%#61 | 12.1%#73 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#42 | 3.67#104 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.15#102 | 4.51#127 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#81 | own 28#123 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#84 | own 30#76 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.7#32 | 69.3#36 |
| Stat | California | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03#99 | -0.05#106 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#64 | -0.15#124 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#122 | +0.01#70 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#32 | +0.12#111 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7%#112 | 39.4%#106 |
| Passing success rate | 42.7%#51 | 34.7%#123 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5%#54 | 17.9%#62 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.0%#27 | 24.0%#127 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.8%#19 | 32.7%#107 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.7%#75 | 35.7%#113 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0%#74 | 41.1%#75 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.9%#46 | 52.6%#111 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.9%#80 | 65.1%#104 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: California schedule · Syracuse schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.