Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia 38.2, Auburn 12.6 at Sanford Stadium in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Georgia wins about 95% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 25.6 points and 50.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Auburn is 3-2, scoring 26.8 and allowing 21.4 points per game (+5.4 per game). Georgia (No. 1) is 6-0, scoring 46.2 and allowing 14 points per game (+32.2 per game).
Georgia's elite defense (6th) should limit Auburn's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Georgia's elite offense (3rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 42 points against an average defense) against Auburn's strong defense (27th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia by 3 and Georgia by 48 about 80% of the time.
Georgia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia by about 23.5. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Auburn 27, Georgia 24. Auburn won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 28.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Auburn / Georgia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia -17.5 → Georgia -19.5 | 51.5 → 50.25 | +750 / -1275 |
| DraftKings | Georgia -16.5 → Georgia -19.5 | 54.5 → 50.5 | +850 / -1450 |
| Bovada | Georgia -18.5 → Georgia -19.5 | 48.5 → 50 | +650 / -1100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia -25.5 | 50.8 | 95% |
| Market consensus | Georgia -19.5 | 50.3 | 89% |
| Blended projection | Georgia -20.5 | 51.1 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia win probability
- model 95% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia -25.6 · market Georgia -19.5 · difference +6.1 pts (Georgia view)
- Total
- model 50.8 · market 50.25 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 6.1 pts more toward Georgia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Auburn 12.6, Georgia 38.2 | Georgia 95%wrong winner | 28.6 | 0.2 |
| New formula | Auburn 13.7, Georgia 37.4 | Georgia 94%wrong winner | 26.7 | 0.1 |
Final: Auburn 27, Georgia 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Auburn vs Georgia: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Auburn | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.8#85 | 46.2#2 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.4#49 | 14.0#11 |
| Yards per play | 5.82#88 | 7.80#4 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.06#32 | 4.57#10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 191.0#49 | 215.0#30 |
| Net passing yards per game | 210.4#85 | 244.0#55 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 164.6#88 | 99.7#10 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.6#75 | 181.2#35 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40#119 | 0.33#13 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.20#30 | 1.33#19 |
| Sacks per game | 2.60#28 | 2.67#23 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.60#135 | 1.00#17 |
| Stat | Auburn | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#90 | +0.27#6 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#60 | -0.10#15 |
| Success rate | 41.9%#86 | 53.5%#1 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3%#49 | 33.1%#6 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3%#36 | 17.2%#7 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.0%#5 | 9.0%#12 |
| Havoc rate | 14.2%#65 | 17.0%#18 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9%#111 | 10.0%#14 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.83#94 | 5.40#1 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.44#41 | 3.53#45 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#104 | own 32#27 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#70 | own 28#49 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#34 | 58.8#126 |
| Stat | Auburn | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#42 | +0.20#17 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04#115 | +0.35#12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#74 | -0.11#10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#51 | -0.10#25 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.4%#72 | 52.2%#14 |
| Passing success rate | 39.8%#93 | 55.5%#6 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.9%#53 | 13.9%#27 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.4%#36 | 36.7%#23 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.7%#42 | 22.4%#10 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.6%#37 | 58.3%#4 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.8%#34 | 38.8%#78 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.7%#63 | 82.6%#3 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.1%#61 | 74.5%#125 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Auburn schedule · Georgia schedule · all Week 7 projections
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