Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisville 34, Syracuse 26 at JMA Wireless Dome in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Louisville wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.3 points and 60.1 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Louisville is 3-3, scoring 39.5 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+11.8 per game). Syracuse is 2-3, scoring 32.8 and allowing 24 points per game (+8.8 per game).
Louisville's strong offense (21st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack defense (76th); that mismatch is where most of Louisville's projected points come from. Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack offense (57th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.4 points against an average defense) meets Louisville's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Syracuse puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisville by 31 and Syracuse by 14 about 80% of the time.
Syracuse gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Louisville is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Louisville 34, Syracuse 26. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 0.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Louisville / Syracuse) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisville -11.75 → Louisville -14.5 | 56 → 56.25 | -587.5 / +422.5 |
| DraftKings | Louisville -10.5 → Louisville -14.5 | 55.5 → 56.5 | -625 / +455 |
| Bovada | Louisville -13 → Louisville -14.5 | 56.5 → 56 | -550 / +390 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Syracuse win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisville -8.5 | 60.1 | 29% |
| Market consensus | Louisville -14.5 | 56.3 | 18% |
| Blended projection | Louisville -13.5 | 56.8 | 18% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Syracuse win probability
- model 29% · market (no-vig) 18% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model Louisville -8.3 · market Louisville -14.5 · difference +6.2 pts (Syracuse view)
- Total
- model 60.1 · market 56.25 · difference +3.9
Model margin is 6.2 pts more toward Syracuse than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Louisville 33.2, Syracuse 27.1 | Louisville 66%right winner | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| New formula | Louisville 33.1, Syracuse 26.8 | Louisville 66%right winner | 1.7 | 0.2 |
Final: Louisville 34, Syracuse 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Louisville vs Syracuse: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Louisville | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.5#16 | 32.8#53 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7#104 | 24.0#74 |
| Yards per play | 7.91#2 | 5.83#86 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.65#79 | 5.28#50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 241.0#10 | 180.4#59 |
| Net passing yards per game | 250.8#48 | 283.6#18 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 164.2#86 | 167.8#94 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 246.7#119 | 156.2#15 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#19 | 1.40#124 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17#45 | 0.80#82 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#73 | 2.40#38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83#83 | 2.20#100 |
| Stat | Louisville | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.30#2 | +0.11#65 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#109 | -0.01#41 |
| Success rate | 49.9%#13 | 42.7%#76 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.3%#76 | 41.4%#77 |
| Explosive play rate | 18.8%#2 | 12.4%#85 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#49 | 13.6%#106 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#102 | 16.1%#24 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.4%#77 | 12.7%#61 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.57#39 | 3.61#110 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83#72 | 3.79#67 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#71 | own 32#31 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#62 | own 30#92 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.2#102 | 79.6#2 |
| Stat | Louisville | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.30#2 | +0.07#76 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.31#15 | +0.15#49 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#72 | +0.16#124 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20#112 | -0.17#13 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.5%#19 | 44.4%#73 |
| Passing success rate | 49.1%#27 | 41.1%#86 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8%#100 | 18.7%#97 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.0%#58 | 33.3%#52 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.4%#112 | 26.8%#46 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.8%#50 | 48.1%#28 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.4%#53 | 32.2%#24 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.4%#28 | 59.3%#93 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.4%#46 | 64.7%#96 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisville schedule · Syracuse schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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