Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Houston 35.9, Oklahoma State 21 at TDECU Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Houston wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.9 points and 56.9 combined points.
Oklahoma State (No. 18) is 4-1, scoring 38.2 and allowing 21.4 points per game (+16.8 per game). Houston (No. 20) is 5-1, scoring 40 and allowing 19.2 points per game (+20.8 per game).
Expect Oklahoma State to find it hard going: Houston's strong defense (25th) outranks Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack offense (58th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense). Houston's strong offense (17th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th); that mismatch is where most of Houston's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oklahoma State by 8 and Houston by 37 about 80% of the time.
Houston gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Houston by about 12.8. The game is on Fox.
Result: Oklahoma State 32, Houston 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.9 points and the total by 10.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oklahoma State / Houston) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Houston -3.75 → Houston -4.25 | 59.25 → 62.25 | +159.5 / -190 |
| DraftKings | Houston -3.5 → Houston -4 | 57.5 → 62.5 | +154 / -185 |
| Bovada | Houston -4 → Houston -4.5 | 61 → 62 | +165 / -195 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Houston win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Houston -15 | 56.9 | 84% |
| Market consensus | Houston -4.5 | 62.3 | 63% |
| Blended projection | Houston -6 | 61.8 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Houston win probability
- model 84% · market (no-vig) 63% · difference +21 pts
- Margin
- model Houston -14.9 · market Houston -4.25 · difference +10.7 pts (Houston view)
- Total
- model 56.9 · market 62.25 · difference -5.4
Model margin is 10.7 pts more toward Houston than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Oklahoma State 21.0, Houston 35.9 | Houston 84%right winner | 11.9 | 10.1 |
| New formula | Oklahoma State 21.5, Houston 36.1 | Houston 83%right winner | 11.6 | 9.5 |
Final: Oklahoma State 32, Houston 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Oklahoma State vs Houston: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.2#24 | 40.0#15 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.4#50 | 19.2#38 |
| Yards per play | 7.35#8 | 6.89#20 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.19#44 | 5.54#69 |
| Rushing yards per game | 202.8#38 | 231.0#16 |
| Net passing yards per game | 338.0#5 | 253.8#44 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.8#78 | 91.3#4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.0#36 | 238.5#110 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40#125 | 0.50#29 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#85 | 1.17#40 |
| Sacks per game | 1.80#87 | 2.00#67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.80#12 | 0.83#14 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#50 | +0.24#14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#59 | +0.07#86 |
| Success rate | 48.5%#23 | 53.2%#3 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1%#61 | 40.2%#62 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.4%#21 | 12.6%#74 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.1%#14 | 10.9%#45 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#109 | 18.4%#4 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5%#20 | 9.5%#10 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.31#55 | 4.73#25 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70#63 | 4.91#132 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#81 | own 35#4 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#108 | own 24#3 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.6#9 | 70.3#24 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#74 | +0.13#45 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#42 | +0.38#8 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#66 | +0.02#69 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#57 | +0.10#92 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.9%#50 | 51.2%#15 |
| Passing success rate | 50.0%#25 | 55.6%#4 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3%#42 | 9.8%#2 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.2%#67 | 49.4%#2 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.2%#17 | 29.8%#77 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.3%#100 | 62.7%#1 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.4%#25 | 37.2%#66 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.8%#109 | 71.4%#27 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.3%#58 | 78.6%#129 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oklahoma State schedule · Houston schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.