Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisiana Tech 36.5, UL Monroe 22.3 at Malone Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Louisiana Tech wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.2 points and 58.8 combined points.
Louisiana Tech is 3-2, scoring 35.2 and allowing 29.4 points per game (+5.8 per game). UL Monroe is 0-5, scoring 24 and allowing 44.6 points per game (-20.6 per game).
Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (72nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UL Monroe's struggling defense (136th); that mismatch is where most of Louisiana Tech's projected points come from. Expect UL Monroe to find it hard going: Louisiana Tech's below-average defense (92nd) outranks UL Monroe's struggling offense (123rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana Tech by 37 and UL Monroe by 8 about 80% of the time.
UL Monroe gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Louisiana Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Louisiana Tech 24, UL Monroe 0. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.8 points and the total by 34.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Louisiana Tech / UL Monroe) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisiana Tech -14.5 | 53.5 → 55.75 | -637.5 / +450 |
| DraftKings | Louisiana Tech -14.5 → Louisiana Tech -13.5 | 52.5 → 55.5 | -575 / +425 |
| Bovada | Louisiana Tech -14.5 → Louisiana Tech -15.5 | 54.5 → 56 | -700 / +475 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UL Monroe win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana Tech -14 | 58.8 | 18% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana Tech -14.5 | 55.8 | 17% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana Tech -14.5 | 56.3 | 16% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UL Monroe win probability
- model 18% · market (no-vig) 17% · difference +0 pts
- Margin
- model Louisiana Tech -14.2 · market Louisiana Tech -14.5 · difference +0.3 pts (UL Monroe view)
- Total
- model 58.8 · market 55.75 · difference +3.0
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Louisiana Tech 36.5, UL Monroe 22.3 | Louisiana Tech 82%right winner | 9.8 | 34.8 |
| New formula | Louisiana Tech 36.5, UL Monroe 22.3 | Louisiana Tech 82%right winner | 9.8 | 34.7 |
Final: Louisiana Tech 24, UL Monroe 0. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Louisiana Tech vs UL Monroe: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.2#38 | 24.0#98 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.4#116 | 44.6#138 |
| Yards per play | 6.14#68 | 5.22#122 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.85#90 | 7.29#136 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.8#79 | 147.4#97 |
| Net passing yards per game | 235.6#61 | 201.4#90 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.2#90 | 248.0#137 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.8#98 | 267.8#130 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20#110 | 1.00#93 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#6 | 0.20#136 |
| Sacks per game | 2.40#40 | 1.00#129 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.80#76 | 2.20#105 |
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#57 | +0.11#64 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#28 | +0.26#137 |
| Success rate | 42.2%#84 | 42.8%#73 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.4%#31 | 51.1%#137 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.2%#25 | 12.5%#82 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.6%#124 | 15.6%#131 |
| Havoc rate | 17.4%#16 | 10.5%#132 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#110 | 16.0%#127 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.12#69 | 4.04#79 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07#87 | 4.65#121 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#13 | own 27#118 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#119 | own 30#89 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.4#85 | 66.8#56 |
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#34 | +0.18#20 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#71 | +0.05#94 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#51 | +0.14#122 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#28 | +0.42#138 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2%#112 | 45.0%#69 |
| Passing success rate | 44.8%#48 | 41.2%#85 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4%#115 | 17.2%#71 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.1%#29 | 32.3%#66 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8%#90 | 44.7%#138 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.3%#44 | 31.4%#128 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.2%#109 | 52.1%#136 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 78.9%#7 | 70.1%#34 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.0%#15 | 57.6%#66 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisiana Tech schedule · UL Monroe schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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