Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected East Carolina 29.3, UAB 20.3 at Protective Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: East Carolina wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9 points and 49.6 combined points.
East Carolina is 3-2, scoring 24.8 and allowing 22.6 points per game (+2.2 per game). UAB is 3-3, scoring 22.2 and allowing 25.8 points per game (-3.6 per game).
East Carolina's below-average offense (88th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UAB's struggling defense (123rd); that mismatch is where most of East Carolina's projected points come from. Expect UAB to find it hard going: East Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st) outranks UAB's struggling offense (122nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Carolina by 32 and UAB by 14 about 80% of the time.
UAB gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. East Carolina is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: East Carolina 17, UAB 30. UAB won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 22 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (East Carolina / UAB) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | East Carolina -5.5 → East Carolina -5.25 | 51.25 → 49.25 | -196.5 / +164.5 |
| DraftKings | East Carolina -6.5 → East Carolina -5.5 | 53.5 → 49.5 | -198 / +164 |
| Bovada | East Carolina -4.5 → East Carolina -5 | 49 | -195 / +165 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UAB win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | East Carolina -9 | 49.6 | 28% |
| Market consensus | East Carolina -5 | 49.3 | 36% |
| Blended projection | East Carolina -6 | 50.1 | 34% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UAB win probability
- model 28% · market (no-vig) 36% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model East Carolina -9 · market East Carolina -5.25 · difference -3.7 pts (UAB view)
- Total
- model 49.6 · market 49.25 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 3.7 pts more toward East Carolina than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | East Carolina 29.3, UAB 20.3 | East Carolina 72%wrong winner | 22.0 | 2.6 |
| New formula | East Carolina 30.3, UAB 18.8 | East Carolina 77%wrong winner | 24.5 | 2.1 |
Final: East Carolina 17, UAB 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
East Carolina vs UAB: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | East Carolina | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.8#95 | 22.2#108 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.6#63 | 25.8#94 |
| Yards per play | 5.67#98 | 5.42#111 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.89#23 | 5.32#53 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.0#81 | 197.2#43 |
| Net passing yards per game | 193.6#98 | 156.8#127 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.0#89 | 204.5#125 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 172.2#28 | 119.3#1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#89 | 0.83#72 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.20#37 | 0.83#75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.80#22 | 2.17#58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.20#103 | 2.67#122 |
| Stat | East Carolina | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#102 | +0.07#82 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10#14 | +0.04#66 |
| Success rate | 40.2%#109 | 42.8%#72 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.5%#18 | 44.0%#104 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#104 | 9.8%#127 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3%#88 | 9.6%#18 |
| Havoc rate | 16.3%#23 | 13.1%#92 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5%#80 | 13.7%#89 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.28#121 | 3.44#118 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.71#64 | 4.21#102 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#72 | own 31#44 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#86 | own 29#82 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.2#103 | 65.3#70 |
| Stat | East Carolina | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#89 | +0.16#31 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#102 | -0.07#120 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#33 | +0.10#106 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.18#12 | -0.09#27 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.3%#111 | 47.2%#42 |
| Passing success rate | 38.8%#103 | 36.4%#115 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0%#88 | 15.1%#38 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.2%#124 | 33.3%#55 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0%#81 | 25.9%#35 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.6%#132 | 45.5%#41 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.4%#55 | 39.7%#91 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 40.5%#133 | 37.6%#134 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.4%#50 | 70.1%#115 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Carolina schedule · UAB schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.