Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Coastal Carolina 25.1, App State 24.6 at Brooks Stadium (SC) in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Coastal Carolina wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 49.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
App State is 3-2, scoring 28.4 and allowing 19.8 points per game (+8.6 per game). Coastal Carolina is 2-4, scoring 25.2 and allowing 24.3 points per game (+0.9 per game).
App State's below-average offense (109th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.1 points against an average defense) meets Coastal Carolina's below-average defense (106th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points App State puts up. Coastal Carolina's below-average offense (114th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20 points against an average defense) meets App State's below-average defense (104th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Coastal Carolina puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between App State by 22 and Coastal Carolina by 23 about 80% of the time.
Coastal Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field App State would be favoured by 1.6. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: App State 35, Coastal Carolina 32. App State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 3.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (App State / Coastal Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | App State -1.25 | 51.75 → 48.75 | -114 / -6 |
| DraftKings | App State -1.5 | 51.5 → 48.5 | -108 / -112 |
| Bovada | App State -1 | 52 → 49 | -120 / +100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Coastal Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Coastal Carolina -0.5 | 49.7 | 51% |
| Market consensus | App State -1 | 48.8 | 49% |
| Blended projection | App State -1 | 49.7 | 47% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Coastal Carolina win probability
- model 51% · market (no-vig) 49% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Coastal Carolina -0.5 · market App State -1.25 · difference +1.8 pts (Coastal Carolina view)
- Total
- model 49.7 · market 48.75 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward Coastal Carolina than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | App State 24.6, Coastal Carolina 25.1 | Coastal Carolina 51%wrong winner | 3.5 | 17.3 |
| New formula | App State 24.7, Coastal Carolina 25.2 | Coastal Carolina 51%wrong winner | 3.5 | 17.1 |
Final: App State 35, Coastal Carolina 32. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
App State vs Coastal Carolina: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | App State | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4#73 | 25.2#93 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.8#41 | 24.3#77 |
| Yards per play | 6.05#75 | 5.77#91 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.85#19 | 6.36#117 |
| Rushing yards per game | 141.2#110 | 172.2#66 |
| Net passing yards per game | 260.8#37 | 201.0#92 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 147.8#61 | 207.7#128 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 188.6#45 | 198.2#66 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80#57 | 1.17#104 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.80#7 | 1.17#47 |
| Sacks per game | 1.80#86 | 2.17#61 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.20#36 | 3.17#131 |
| Stat | App State | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#95 | -0.02#115 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#49 | +0.07#88 |
| Success rate | 39.7%#114 | 38.4%#121 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7%#92 | 43.0%#94 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#52 | 13.1%#63 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#54 | 12.5%#91 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5%#30 | 14.3%#64 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#83 | 15.6%#122 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.77#100 | 3.53#115 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.59#52 | 3.34#34 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#17 | own 30#76 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#36 | own 29#79 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.4#61 | 64.7#80 |
| Stat | App State | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#122 | +0.03#96 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#60 | -0.07#121 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#96 | +0.06#83 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#32 | +0.07#83 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.5%#129 | 41.7%#94 |
| Passing success rate | 42.9%#69 | 34.7%#125 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4%#114 | 16.1%#57 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.1%#68 | 30.5%#83 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9%#47 | 27.5%#53 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.4%#115 | 34.7%#113 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#46 | 43.4%#111 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.1%#13 | 58.7%#95 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.3%#85 | 51.2%#42 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: App State schedule · Coastal Carolina schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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