Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Michigan 27.2, Central Michigan 18.5 at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Western Michigan wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.7 points and 45.6 combined points.
Western Michigan is 4-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+8.4 per game). Central Michigan is 3-3, scoring 17 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-9.3 per game).
Western Michigan's below-average offense (87th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.2 points against an average defense) meets Central Michigan's below-average defense (99th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Western Michigan puts up. Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack defense (48th) should limit Central Michigan's struggling offense (121st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Michigan by 31 and Central Michigan by 14 about 80% of the time.
Central Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Western Michigan is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Western Michigan 21, Central Michigan 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.7 points and the total by 10.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Michigan / Central Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Michigan -7 → Western Michigan -7.5 | 42.75 → 42.5 | -282.5 / +230 |
| DraftKings | Western Michigan -7 → Western Michigan -7.5 | 42.5 | -290 / +235 |
| Bovada | Western Michigan -7 → Western Michigan -7.5 | 43 → 42.5 | -275 / +225 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Central Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Michigan -8.5 | 45.6 | 28% |
| Market consensus | Western Michigan -7.5 | 42.5 | 29% |
| Blended projection | Western Michigan -7.5 | 44.1 | 30% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Central Michigan win probability
- model 28% · market (no-vig) 29% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Western Michigan -8.7 · market Western Michigan -7.5 · difference -1.2 pts (Central Michigan view)
- Total
- model 45.6 · market 42.5 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Western Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Michigan 27.2, Central Michigan 18.5 | Western Michigan 72%right winner | 1.7 | 10.6 |
| New formula | Western Michigan 25.9, Central Michigan 16.9 | Western Michigan 72%right winner | 2.0 | 7.7 |
Final: Western Michigan 21, Central Michigan 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Michigan vs Central Michigan: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Western Michigan | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7#91 | 17.0#128 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.3#26 | 26.3#97 |
| Yards per play | 5.59#104 | 5.23#121 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.10#36 | 5.88#93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.3#70 | 201.7#39 |
| Net passing yards per game | 168.8#119 | 95.5#135 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 149.0#62 | 186.7#111 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.7#41 | 189.5#47 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.17#7 | 1.00#92 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33#133 | 1.17#46 |
| Sacks per game | 2.17#60 | 1.83#80 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#49 | 2.17#96 |
| Stat | Western Michigan | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#75 | -0.01#114 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#72 | +0.08#96 |
| Success rate | 44.9%#54 | 39.3%#116 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#84 | 47.5%#128 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4%#117 | 7.5%#138 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#68 | 12.0%#79 |
| Havoc rate | 11.6%#117 | 11.3%#119 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.1%#27 | 12.3%#54 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.14#65 | 3.62#109 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.59#53 | 4.31#108 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#58 | own 27#117 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#18 | own 32#122 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.3#116 | 56.8#132 |
| Stat | Western Michigan | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#69 | +0.19#18 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#74 | -0.45#138 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#45 | +0.19#132 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#98 | -0.03#44 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.8%#88 | 47.1%#47 |
| Passing success rate | 43.0%#68 | 22.5%#138 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.7%#35 | 12.0%#10 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.3%#76 | 23.4%#128 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7%#108 | 34.1%#110 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.9%#69 | 38.7%#88 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.7%#93 | 49.4%#133 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.4%#65 | 62.5%#74 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6%#65 | 72.7%#120 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Michigan schedule · Central Michigan schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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