Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Delaware 28.1, Middle Tennessee 24.2 at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Delaware wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 52.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Delaware is 2-3, scoring 21.4 and allowing 25.6 points per game (-4.2 per game). Middle Tennessee is 2-3, scoring 20.8 and allowing 28 points per game (-7.2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Delaware's below-average offense (106th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense) against Middle Tennessee's struggling defense (127th). Middle Tennessee's struggling offense (132nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.4 points against an average defense) meets Delaware's struggling defense (118th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Middle Tennessee puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Delaware by 26 and Middle Tennessee by 19 about 80% of the time.
Middle Tennessee gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Delaware is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Delaware 30, Middle Tennessee 33. Middle Tennessee won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Delaware / Middle Tennessee) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Delaware -2 → Delaware -1.25 | 48.25 → 49.5 | -127.5 / +107.5 |
| Bovada | Delaware -2.5 → Delaware -1 | 48 → 49.5 | -135 / +115 |
| DraftKings | Delaware -1.5 | 48.5 → 49.5 | -120 / +100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Middle Tennessee win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Delaware -4 | 52.2 | 40% |
| Market consensus | Delaware -1 | 49.5 | 46% |
| Blended projection | Delaware -1.5 | 50.5 | 45% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Middle Tennessee win probability
- model 40% · market (no-vig) 46% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Delaware -3.9 · market Delaware -1.25 · difference -2.6 pts (Middle Tennessee view)
- Total
- model 52.2 · market 49.5 · difference +2.7
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Delaware than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Delaware 28.1, Middle Tennessee 24.2 | Delaware 60%wrong winner | 6.9 | 10.8 |
| New formula | Delaware 28.2, Middle Tennessee 24.0 | Delaware 61%wrong winner | 7.2 | 10.8 |
Final: Delaware 30, Middle Tennessee 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Delaware vs Middle Tennessee: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Delaware | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.4#112 | 20.8#116 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.6#87 | 28.0#111 |
| Yards per play | 5.74#93 | 5.57#105 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.67#80 | 6.91#130 |
| Rushing yards per game | 116.0#128 | 125.0#123 |
| Net passing yards per game | 244.6#53 | 186.0#105 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.8#71 | 230.0#135 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.6#115 | 204.2#72 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20#108 | 0.20#11 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40#127 | 1.00#57 |
| Sacks per game | 3.20#8 | 0.40#137 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.60#114 | 1.20#37 |
| Stat | Delaware | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#86 | +0.02#106 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#97 | +0.07#90 |
| Success rate | 40.9%#96 | 40.5%#105 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3%#97 | 44.3%#107 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7%#70 | 11.1%#110 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#72 | 12.7%#95 |
| Havoc rate | 15.4%#32 | 11.1%#121 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.0%#125 | 13.3%#73 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.04#78 | 3.61#111 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.30#30 | 4.20#100 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#95 | own 28#111 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#96 | own 28#57 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.8#96 | 55.8#134 |
| Stat | Delaware | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#100 | +0.03#99 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#79 | -0.01#107 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#89 | +0.11#108 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09#89 | +0.03#64 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.6%#101 | 41.7%#93 |
| Passing success rate | 40.4%#89 | 38.6%#104 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.6%#94 | 18.1%#90 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5%#113 | 28.0%#99 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9%#56 | 27.3%#50 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.3%#124 | 28.1%#135 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.5%#56 | 38.2%#73 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.0%#98 | 61.6%#75 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.0%#73 | 57.7%#67 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Delaware schedule · Middle Tennessee schedule · all Week 7 projections
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