Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kansas State 30.2, Kansas 27.6 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Kansas State wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 57.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Kansas is 2-3, scoring 33.6 and allowing 21.8 points per game (+11.8 per game). Kansas State is 3-2, scoring 35.6 and allowing 19.2 points per game (+16.4 per game).
Kansas's strong offense (41st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd); that mismatch is where most of Kansas's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Kansas State's strong offense (36th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.7 points against an average defense) against Kansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (51st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kansas by 20 and Kansas State by 25 about 80% of the time.
Kansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kansas State by about 0.5. The game is on FS1.
Result: Kansas 24, Kansas State 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.4 points and the total by 1.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kansas / Kansas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kansas State -7 → Kansas State -3.25 | 55 → 55.5 | +164.5 / -196.5 |
| DraftKings | Kansas State -7.5 → Kansas State -3 | 54.5 → 55.5 | +124 / -148 |
| Bovada | Kansas State -6.5 → Kansas State -3.5 | 55.5 | +205 / -245 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kansas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kansas State -2.5 | 57.8 | 57% |
| Market consensus | Kansas State -3.5 | 55.5 | 63% |
| Blended projection | Kansas State -3 | 56.0 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kansas State win probability
- model 57% · market (no-vig) 63% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Kansas State -2.6 · market Kansas State -3.25 · difference -0.6 pts (Kansas State view)
- Total
- model 57.8 · market 55.5 · difference +2.3
Model margin is 0.6 pts more toward Kansas than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kansas 27.6, Kansas State 30.2 | Kansas State 57%right winner | 8.4 | 1.2 |
| New formula | Kansas 28.1, Kansas State 30.1 | Kansas State 55%right winner | 9.0 | 0.8 |
Final: Kansas 24, Kansas State 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kansas vs Kansas State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Kansas | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.6#50 | 35.6#36 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.8#55 | 19.2#37 |
| Yards per play | 6.86#24 | 6.62#37 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.09#34 | 5.15#41 |
| Rushing yards per game | 223.4#26 | 217.6#29 |
| Net passing yards per game | 258.4#39 | 242.0#57 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.6#54 | 176.0#102 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 164.0#21 | 119.4#2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80#52 | 0.80#53 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40#125 | 0.20#134 |
| Sacks per game | 1.80#83 | 2.40#37 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#19 | 0.40#3 |
| Stat | Kansas | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#34 | +0.20#26 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#24 | +0.06#82 |
| Success rate | 44.0%#60 | 46.8%#39 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.8%#21 | 38.8%#44 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.7%#9 | 12.4%#83 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1%#28 | 14.4%#118 |
| Havoc rate | 18.2%#6 | 14.5%#59 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#43 | 9.9%#13 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.03#80 | 4.87#15 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.27#22 | 4.46#114 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#112 | own 29#79 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#123 | own 26#21 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.2#26 | 69.4#31 |
| Stat | Kansas | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#40 | +0.21#13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20#36 | +0.19#38 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#9 | +0.02#67 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#58 | +0.11#96 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.3%#27 | 53.3%#5 |
| Passing success rate | 38.5%#106 | 43.2%#65 |
| Run stuff rate | 9.8%#1 | 15.4%#44 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.9%#108 | 38.3%#19 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.0%#21 | 32.2%#97 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.6%#81 | 61.6%#2 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.4%#13 | 36.8%#62 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.5%#20 | 67.8%#48 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.1%#83 | 77.1%#128 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kansas schedule · Kansas State schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.