Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio 32.2, Sacramento State 18.6 at Hornet Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Ohio wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.6 points and 50.8 combined points.
Ohio is 4-2, scoring 27.5 and allowing 24.7 points per game (+2.8 per game). Sacramento State is 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 30.2 points per game (-13.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Ohio's below-average offense (94th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.4 points against an average defense) against Sacramento State's struggling defense (134th). Ohio's below-average defense (83rd) should limit Sacramento State's struggling offense (136th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 15 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio by 36 and Sacramento State by 9 about 80% of the time.
Sacramento State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Ohio is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Ohio 48, Sacramento State 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 27.4 points and the total by 4.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ohio / Sacramento State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio -14 → Ohio -16.5 | 49.5 → 46.5 | -800 / +537.5 |
| DraftKings | Ohio -13.5 → Ohio -17.5 | 49.5 → 46.5 | -950 / +625 |
| Bovada | Ohio -14.5 → Ohio -15.5 | 49.5 → 46.5 | -650 / +450 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Sacramento State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio -13.5 | 50.8 | 19% |
| Market consensus | Ohio -16.5 | 46.5 | 15% |
| Blended projection | Ohio -16 | 47.8 | 14% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Sacramento State win probability
- model 19% · market (no-vig) 15% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio -13.6 · market Ohio -16.5 · difference +2.9 pts (Sacramento State view)
- Total
- model 50.8 · market 46.5 · difference +4.3
Model margin is 2.9 pts more toward Sacramento State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ohio 32.2, Sacramento State 18.6 | Ohio 81%right winner | 27.4 | 4.2 |
| New formula | Ohio 33.0, Sacramento State 17.2 | Ohio 85%right winner | 25.1 | 4.8 |
Final: Ohio 48, Sacramento State 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ohio vs Sacramento State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Ohio | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.5#81 | 16.3#130 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.7#79 | 30.2#118 |
| Yards per play | 5.83#87 | 4.94#130 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.55#70 | 6.00#99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 207.7#34 | 122.3#126 |
| Net passing yards per game | 158.8#126 | 207.5#88 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.3#67 | 168.8#96 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 189.2#46 | 182.2#37 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#51 | 1.17#101 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#121 | 0.50#117 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#96 | 1.33#114 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#91 | 1.67#71 |
| Stat | Ohio | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#38 | -0.05#125 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#87 | +0.03#62 |
| Success rate | 46.3%#45 | 40.9%#97 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1%#72 | 40.0%#58 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#96 | 9.5%#131 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#52 | 14.5%#122 |
| Havoc rate | 15.1%#41 | 9.9%#134 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.1%#16 | 15.5%#120 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.10#72 | 2.80#135 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.05#82 | 4.22#103 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#24 | own 30#62 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#94 | own 29#66 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.8#97 | 66.8#54 |
| Stat | Ohio | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#19 | -0.02#111 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11#66 | -0.07#118 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#48 | +0.05#77 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18#107 | +0.01#55 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.2%#16 | 45.0%#68 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3%#83 | 36.2%#117 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.1%#19 | 22.9%#132 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6%#64 | 26.9%#109 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.2%#125 | 24.7%#20 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.7%#9 | 34.1%#116 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.1%#118 | 36.6%#58 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.1%#22 | 34.4%#137 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.4%#78 | 66.4%#102 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ohio schedule · Sacramento State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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