Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wyoming 21.4, Northern Illinois 17.7 at War Memorial Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Wyoming wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 39.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Northern Illinois is 0-5, scoring 12.4 and allowing 34.6 points per game (-22.2 per game). Wyoming is 3-3, scoring 14.5 and allowing 20.5 points per game (-6 per game).
Expect Northern Illinois to find it hard going: Wyoming's middle-of-the-pack defense (70th) outranks Northern Illinois's struggling offense (131st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.8 points against an average defense). Northern Illinois's below-average defense (109th) should limit Wyoming's struggling offense (135th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 15.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Illinois by 19 and Wyoming by 26 about 80% of the time.
Wyoming gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wyoming by about 1.6. The game is on CW.
Result: Northern Illinois 23, Wyoming 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.3 points and the total by 24.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Illinois / Wyoming) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wyoming -7.25 → Wyoming -7.5 | 39.25 → 42.25 | +232.5 / -285 |
| DraftKings | Wyoming -7.5 → Wyoming -7 | 38.5 → 42.5 | +235 / -290 |
| Bovada | Wyoming -7 → Wyoming -8 | 40 → 42 | +230 / -280 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wyoming win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wyoming -3.5 | 39.1 | 60% |
| Market consensus | Wyoming -7.5 | 42.3 | 71% |
| Blended projection | Wyoming -7 | 43.5 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wyoming win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 71% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Wyoming -3.7 · market Wyoming -7.5 · difference -3.8 pts (Wyoming view)
- Total
- model 39.1 · market 42.25 · difference -3.1
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Northern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Illinois 17.7, Wyoming 21.4 | Wyoming 60%right winner | 14.3 | 24.9 |
| New formula | Northern Illinois 15.6, Wyoming 20.7 | Wyoming 63%right winner | 12.8 | 27.7 |
Final: Northern Illinois 23, Wyoming 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Illinois vs Wyoming: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 12.4#138 | 14.5#136 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.6#130 | 20.5#44 |
| Yards per play | 5.02#128 | 5.24#120 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.37#118 | 5.53#68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 105.4#135 | 176.8#62 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.8#95 | 132.5#132 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 223.0#132 | 185.0#109 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 196.0#57 | 179.8#34 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80#59 | 1.67#134 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.20#36 | 0.50#118 |
| Sacks per game | 1.60#100 | 2.00#76 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.60#136 | 2.50#110 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#113 | +0.00#111 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#110 | +0.04#67 |
| Success rate | 40.2%#108 | 41.0%#93 |
| Success rate allowed | 50.4%#135 | 45.1%#116 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#109 | 13.4%#57 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7%#108 | 11.3%#61 |
| Havoc rate | 10.6%#129 | 13.1%#93 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.9%#124 | 15.8%#123 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.29#138 | 3.27#122 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.28#107 | 3.28#27 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#119 | own 31#46 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#104 | own 27#44 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.2#118 | 59.0#125 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#91 | +0.13#48 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04#117 | -0.15#128 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#107 | +0.01#58 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13#100 | +0.03#65 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.3%#96 | 47.2%#43 |
| Passing success rate | 39.5%#96 | 36.1%#118 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2%#110 | 14.6%#33 |
| Passing-down success rate | 20.5%#134 | 30.5%#82 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 41.6%#134 | 29.7%#76 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.8%#112 | 33.8%#118 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 62.7%#138 | 39.2%#85 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.9%#132 | 43.2%#130 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.0%#99 | 46.7%#21 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Illinois schedule · Wyoming schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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