Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Clemson 35.3, Charleston Southern 8.1 at Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Clemson wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.1 points and 43.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Charleston Southern is 3-3, scoring 27.8 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+7.5 per game). Clemson is 3-2, scoring 19.4 and allowing 25.8 points per game (-6.4 per game).
Charleston Southern plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Clemson's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Clemson by 5 and Clemson by 50 about 80% of the time.
Clemson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Clemson by about 25. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Charleston Southern 0, Clemson 37. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.9 points and the total by 6.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Charleston Southern / Clemson) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Clemson -43.5 → Clemson -42.5 | 58.5 → 53.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Clemson -43.5 → Clemson -42.5 | 58.5 → 53.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Clemson win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Clemson -27 | 43.4 | 96% |
| Market consensus | Clemson -42.5 | 53.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Clemson -40 | 53.5 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Clemson win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Clemson -27.1 · market Clemson -42.5 · difference -15.4 pts (Clemson view)
- Total
- model 43.4 · market 53.5 · difference -10.1
Model margin is 15.4 pts more toward Charleston Southern than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Charleston Southern 8.1, Clemson 35.3 | Clemson 96%right winner | 9.9 | 6.4 |
| New formula | Charleston Southern 8.3, Clemson 36.6 | Clemson 97%right winner | 8.7 | 7.8 |
Final: Charleston Southern 0, Clemson 37. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Charleston Southern vs Clemson: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Charleston Southern | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8 | 19.4#118 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.3 | 25.8#93 |
| Yards per play | 5.48 | 5.27#119 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.88 | 5.49#66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.3 | 152.8#91 |
| Net passing yards per game | 145.0 | 188.8#102 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 136.7 | 172.6#101 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.3 | 207.4#80 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.20#112 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.80#87 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 2.00#74 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.00 | 3.40#133 |
| Stat | Charleston Southern | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.10#133 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | -0.03#31 |
| Success rate | 39.3% | 35.2%#131 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.8% | 42.0%#86 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6% | 11.0%#111 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8% | 12.1%#83 |
| Havoc rate | 14.2% | 15.0%#43 |
| Havoc allowed | 19.2% | 15.3%#117 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.98 | 3.46#117 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.15 | 3.24#20 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | own 30#68 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | own 26#24 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.7 | 64.8#78 |
| Stat | Charleston Southern | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.00#105 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.17 | -0.18#133 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.11#110 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | -0.15#14 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.0% | 33.6%#134 |
| Passing success rate | 31.7% | 36.6%#114 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.7% | 20.0%#109 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5% | 28.7%#94 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5% | 37.1%#124 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.4% | 32.4%#122 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.6% | 38.6%#77 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.2% | 35.7%#136 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.1% | 61.5%#88 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Charleston Southern schedule · Clemson schedule · all Week 7 projections
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