Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Toledo 45.1, Central Connecticut 6.2 at Glass Bowl in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Toledo wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 38.9 points and 51.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Central Connecticut is 0-1, scoring 20 and allowing 59 points per game (-39 per game). Toledo is 0-1, scoring 20 and allowing 30 points per game (-10 per game).
Central Connecticut plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Toledo's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Toledo by 16 and Toledo by 61 about 80% of the time.
Toledo gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Toledo by about 36.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Central Connecticut 10, Toledo 63. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.1 points and the total by 21.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Central Connecticut / Toledo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Toledo -34.75 → Toledo -36.5 | 55 → 52.5 | +3500 / -20000 |
| Bovada | Toledo -36 → Toledo -36.5 | 54.5 → 52.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Toledo -33.5 → Toledo -36.5 | 55.5 → 52.5 | +3500 / -20000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Toledo win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Toledo -39 | 51.2 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Toledo -36.5 | 52.5 | 97% |
| Blended projection | Toledo -37 | 53.0 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Toledo win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 97% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Toledo -38.9 · market Toledo -36.5 · difference +2.4 pts (Toledo view)
- Total
- model 51.2 · market 52.5 · difference -1.3
Model margin is 2.4 pts more toward Toledo than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Central Connecticut 6.2, Toledo 45.1 | Toledo 99%right winner | 14.1 | 21.8 |
| New formula | Central Connecticut 16.8, Toledo 39.8 | Toledo 92%right winner | 30.0 | 16.4 |
Final: Central Connecticut 10, Toledo 63. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Central Connecticut vs Toledo: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.7 | 30.8#39 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.9 | 13.3#4 |
| Yards per play | 5.64 | 6.26#35 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 4.19#1 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.3 | 185.5#45 |
| Net passing yards per game | 241.6 | 229.4#60 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.3 | 115.1#10 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.2 | 145.9#2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.62 | 0.92#53 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85 | 1.46#20 |
| Sacks per game | 2.15 | 2.85#8 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.23 | 1.31#25 |
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.00 | +0.11#31 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | -0.18#3 |
| Success rate | 41.1% | 45.2%#40 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0% | 34.6%#6 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7% | 15.3%#12 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 9.2%#9 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 17.1%#2 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6% | 9.7%#15 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53 | 3.90#78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.20 | 2.70#2 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 32#24 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | own 28#37 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.7 | 66.3#66 |
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.06#49 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.15#28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.07#24 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.31#2 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.5% | 44.2%#60 |
| Passing success rate | 45.7% | 43.4%#44 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1% | 17.7%#59 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.5% | 30.7%#71 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7% | 22.8%#5 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.7% | 40.7%#76 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0% | 31.5%#6 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.2% | 60.7%#72 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.9% | 55.6%#40 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Connecticut schedule · Toledo schedule · all Week 2 projections
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