Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Toledo 31.3, San Diego State 24.3 at Glass Bowl in Week 4. That is a lean: Toledo wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7 points and 55.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
San Diego State is 1-2, scoring 25.3 and allowing 24.7 points per game (+0.6 per game). Toledo is 2-1, scoring 44 and allowing 29.3 points per game (+14.7 per game).
San Diego State's below-average offense (108th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.8 points against an average defense) meets Toledo's below-average defense (95th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points San Diego State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Toledo's middle-of-the-pack offense (49th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) against San Diego State's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San Diego State by 16 and Toledo by 30 about 80% of the time.
Toledo gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Toledo by about 4.9. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: San Diego State 16, Toledo 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 18 points and the total by 1.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San Diego State / Toledo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Toledo -0.5 → Toledo -2.75 | 48.75 → 50.5 | +120 / -141 |
| DraftKings | San Diego State -1.5 → Toledo -2.5 | 48.5 → 50.5 | +120 / -142 |
| Bovada | Toledo -2.5 → Toledo -3 | 49 → 50.5 | +120 / -140 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Toledo win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Toledo -7 | 55.6 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Toledo -3 | 50.5 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Toledo -3.5 | 51.6 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Toledo win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model Toledo -7 · market Toledo -2.75 · difference +4.3 pts (Toledo view)
- Total
- model 55.6 · market 50.5 · difference +5.1
Model margin is 4.3 pts more toward Toledo than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San Diego State 24.3, Toledo 31.3 | Toledo 68%right winner | 18.0 | 1.4 |
| New formula | San Diego State 24.1, Toledo 31.9 | Toledo 70%right winner | 17.2 | 1.0 |
Final: San Diego State 16, Toledo 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San Diego State vs Toledo: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | San Diego State | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.3#97 | 44.0#19 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.7#88 | 29.3#112 |
| Yards per play | 5.05#124 | 7.22#22 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.23#63 | 4.53#25 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.3#47 | 153.0#93 |
| Net passing yards per game | 131.0#128 | 311.3#19 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.0#98 | 174.7#105 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.0#83 | 146.7#19 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33#113 | 0.67#76 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#92 | 0.67#112 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#61 | 2.00#68 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#82 | 0.67#30 |
| Stat | San Diego State | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#122 | +0.20#27 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#61 | +0.01#58 |
| Success rate | 35.5%#128 | 44.7%#56 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5%#104 | 37.5%#34 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.2%#128 | 15.6%#22 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.6%#27 | 9.1%#20 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3%#116 | 11.3%#119 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#110 | 11.6%#40 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.84#98 | 5.06#19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66#56 | 3.92#71 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#93 | own 36#15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#130 | own 34#128 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7#81 | 64.3#84 |
| Stat | San Diego State | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#79 | +0.10#58 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.20#132 | +0.27#27 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#62 | -0.04#44 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#71 | +0.07#87 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8%#106 | 46.6%#59 |
| Passing success rate | 27.1%#136 | 46.2%#51 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6%#106 | 19.3%#102 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.6%#101 | 37.0%#32 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7%#78 | 26.2%#47 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.5%#106 | 50.0%#34 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.4%#63 | 38.8%#73 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.6%#78 | 86.4%#4 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.0%#60 | 66.7%#100 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San Diego State schedule · Toledo schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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