Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Toledo 39.4, Buffalo 19.6 at Glass Bowl in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Toledo wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.8 points and 59 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Buffalo is 2-3, scoring 20.4 and allowing 30.6 points per game (-10.2 per game). Toledo is 4-1, scoring 42.4 and allowing 25.6 points per game (+16.8 per game).
Toledo's below-average defense (89th) should limit Buffalo's struggling offense (127th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Toledo's middle-of-the-pack offense (43rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.7 points against an average defense) against Buffalo's struggling defense (133rd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buffalo by 3 and Toledo by 42 about 80% of the time.
Toledo gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Toledo by about 17.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Buffalo 23, Toledo 8. Buffalo won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 34.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Buffalo / Toledo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Toledo -20 → Toledo -18.75 | 54.75 → 55 | +700 / -1150 |
| Bovada | Toledo -19.5 → Toledo -19 | 55 → 55.5 | +700 / -1200 |
| DraftKings | Toledo -20.5 → Toledo -18.5 | 54.5 | +700 / -1100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Toledo win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Toledo -20 | 59.0 | 90% |
| Market consensus | Toledo -19 | 55.0 | 88% |
| Blended projection | Toledo -19 | 55.6 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Toledo win probability
- model 90% · market (no-vig) 88% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Toledo -19.8 · market Toledo -18.75 · difference +1.1 pts (Toledo view)
- Total
- model 59.0 · market 55 · difference +4.0
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward Toledo than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Buffalo 19.6, Toledo 39.4 | Toledo 90%wrong winner | 34.8 | 28.0 |
| New formula | Buffalo 19.3, Toledo 40.1 | Toledo 91%wrong winner | 35.9 | 28.4 |
Final: Buffalo 23, Toledo 8. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Buffalo vs Toledo: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Buffalo | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.4#114 | 42.4#13 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.6#117 | 25.6#92 |
| Yards per play | 4.45#137 | 7.00#20 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.36#116 | 5.01#32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 167.4#71 | 203.4#39 |
| Net passing yards per game | 156.2#126 | 283.8#26 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.4#90 | 146.0#62 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 251.2#118 | 194.0#55 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40#121 | 0.40#31 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.20#133 | 1.00#70 |
| Sacks per game | 1.20#121 | 2.00#75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.40#104 | 0.40#6 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08#128 | +0.15#42 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#83 | -0.01#50 |
| Success rate | 35.9%#128 | 43.6%#63 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.8%#50 | 37.2%#31 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.1%#133 | 14.6%#35 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3%#87 | 10.7%#40 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#86 | 13.4%#82 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7%#61 | 12.0%#47 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.11#69 | 3.99#79 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10#90 | 4.09#87 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#114 | own 35#15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#98 | own 32#113 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.8#11 | 69.6#36 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#112 | +0.10#60 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15#127 | +0.19#39 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | 0.00#53 | -0.09#24 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#97 | +0.07#81 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.1%#118 | 44.7%#71 |
| Passing success rate | 33.1%#130 | 45.0%#54 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.3%#63 | 17.5%#81 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.1%#125 | 31.1%#77 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.6%#34 | 27.2%#47 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.0%#107 | 48.6%#29 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.7%#47 | 36.0%#49 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.8%#93 | 70.4%#34 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 70.7%#114 | 67.7%#102 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Buffalo schedule · Toledo schedule · all Week 6 projections
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