Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Toledo 27.3, Temple 24.9 at Glass Bowl in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Toledo wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 52.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Temple is 1-1, scoring 23.5 and allowing 20.5 points per game (+3 per game). Toledo is 1-1, scoring 41.5 and allowing 20 points per game (+21.5 per game).
Toledo's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd) should limit Temple's below-average offense (109th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Toledo's middle-of-the-pack offense (55th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.7 points against an average defense) against Temple's below-average defense (105th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Temple by 20 and Toledo by 25 about 80% of the time.
Toledo gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Toledo by about 0.3. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Temple 48, Toledo 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.4 points and the total by 44.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Temple / Toledo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Toledo -4.5 → Toledo -4.75 | 51.75 → 48.5 | +172.5 / -207.5 |
| Bovada | Toledo -5 | 51 → 48.5 | +175 / -210 |
| DraftKings | Toledo -4 → Toledo -4.5 | 52.5 → 48.5 | +170 / -205 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Toledo win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Toledo -2.5 | 52.2 | 56% |
| Market consensus | Toledo -5 | 48.5 | 65% |
| Blended projection | Toledo -4.5 | 49.6 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Toledo win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Toledo -2.4 · market Toledo -4.75 · difference -2.3 pts (Toledo view)
- Total
- model 52.2 · market 48.5 · difference +3.7
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Temple than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Temple 24.9, Toledo 27.3 | Toledo 56%right winner | 1.4 | 44.8 |
| New formula | Temple 20.0, Toledo 34.4 | Toledo 82%right winner | 13.4 | 42.5 |
Final: Temple 48, Toledo 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Temple vs Toledo: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Temple | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.5#104 | 41.5#35 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.5#68 | 20.0#67 |
| Yards per play | 5.82#86 | 7.25#29 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.86#103 | 3.82#13 |
| Rushing yards per game | 209.5#42 | 175.5#75 |
| Net passing yards per game | 125.0#129 | 252.5#51 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 96.5#28 | 127.0#66 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 264.0#119 | 142.5#27 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#89 | 1.00#101 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#68 | 0.50#118 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#90 | 2.00#75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#91 | 1.00#59 |
| Stat | Temple | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#114 | +0.06#84 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#66 | -0.04#41 |
| Success rate | 44.2%#60 | 40.5%#99 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0%#67 | 37.0%#37 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#34 | 13.7%#53 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#115 | 10.2%#44 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#76 | 14.7%#61 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.6%#59 | 15.0%#107 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.67#107 | 4.35#65 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10#93 | 3.34#38 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#129 | own 34#38 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#92 | own 32#105 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.5#112 | 59.0#108 |
| Stat | Temple | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#39 | +0.01#97 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.29#132 | +0.11#65 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10#32 | -0.06#42 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14#105 | -0.01#57 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.2%#46 | 41.2%#93 |
| Passing success rate | 36.1%#109 | 40.5%#89 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.8%#84 | 23.6%#127 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.5%#44 | 31.6%#70 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7%#77 | 25.8%#43 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.2%#127 | 43.5%#67 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.2%#113 | 29.4%#34 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#57 | 72.9%#37 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.3%#15 | 53.6%#56 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Temple schedule · Toledo schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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