Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio 32.7, Eastern Michigan 19.3 at Peden Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Ohio wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.4 points and 51.9 combined points.
Eastern Michigan is 4-4, scoring 21.5 and allowing 25.9 points per game (-4.4 per game). Ohio is 5-2, scoring 30.4 and allowing 22.1 points per game (+8.3 per game).
Expect Eastern Michigan to find it hard going: Ohio's middle-of-the-pack defense (73rd) outranks Eastern Michigan's below-average offense (114th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense). Ohio's below-average offense (89th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Eastern Michigan's below-average defense (108th); that mismatch is where most of Ohio's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Michigan by 9 and Ohio by 36 about 80% of the time.
Ohio gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ohio by about 11.3. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Eastern Michigan 20, Ohio 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.4 points and the total by 7.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Michigan / Ohio) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio -11.5 | 48.5 | +365 / -490 |
| Opening line | Ohio -9.5 | 49.5 | +285 / -360 |
| DraftKings | Ohio -11.5 | 48.5 | +370 / -485 |
| FanDuel | Ohio -11.5 | 48.5 | +365 / -490 |
| BetRivers | Ohio -11.5 | 49.5 | +330 / -455 |
| BetMGM | Ohio -11.5 | 48.5 | +360 / -475 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ohio win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio -13.5 | 51.9 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Ohio -11.5 | 48.5 | 78% |
| Blended projection | Ohio -12 | 49.6 | 79% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ohio win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 78% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio -13.4 · market Ohio -11.5 · difference +1.9 pts (Ohio view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 48.5 · difference +3.4
Model margin is 1.9 pts more toward Ohio than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Michigan 19.3, Ohio 32.7 | Ohio 81%right winner | 9.4 | 7.9 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Eastern Michigan 20, Ohio 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Michigan vs Ohio: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.1#92 | 27.8#66 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8#102 | 21.9#42 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#62 | 6.25#36 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.43#123 | 6.08#98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 150.5#88 | 232.5#11 |
| Net passing yards per game | 253.7#40 | 184.5#108 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 245.7#136 | 156.8#60 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.3#39 | 212.1#59 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#85 | 0.92#49 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#115 | 1.00#75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.17#127 | 1.77#90 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.83#7 | 1.92#85 |
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#44 | +0.08#42 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14#131 | 0.00#63 |
| Success rate | 42.6%#62 | 44.4%#48 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1%#118 | 42.0%#75 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#75 | 13.9%#25 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.4%#131 | 13.1%#92 |
| Havoc rate | 9.8%#127 | 12.4%#73 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.4%#10 | 10.8%#34 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33#31 | 3.61#109 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10#98 | 3.55#37 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#136 | own 30#54 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#100 | own 29#51 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.6#54 | 66.7#59 |
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#63 | +0.10#27 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#43 | +0.04#65 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#123 | +0.05#100 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20#126 | -0.04#45 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.4%#57 | 44.7%#56 |
| Passing success rate | 39.9%#87 | 45.1%#32 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9%#63 | 13.1%#6 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.6%#55 | 32.0%#46 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.4%#129 | 30.0%#77 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.2%#54 | 43.9%#39 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.8%#126 | 33.1%#12 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.0%#53 | 69.5%#26 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.9%#116 | 52.8%#22 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Michigan schedule · Ohio schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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