Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio 39.8, Stonehill 11.8 at Peden Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Ohio wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28 points and 51.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Stonehill is 1-3, scoring 19 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-7.3 per game). Ohio is 1-2, scoring 28.7 and allowing 39 points per game (-10.3 per game).
Stonehill plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Ohio's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio by 5 and Ohio by 51 about 80% of the time.
Ohio gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ohio by about 25.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Stonehill 7, Ohio 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0 points and the total by 9.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stonehill / Ohio) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio -34.25 → Ohio -32.5 | 51.75 → 53.5 | +1800 / -5000 |
| DraftKings | Ohio -34.5 → Ohio -32.5 | 50.5 → 53.5 | +1800 / -5000 |
| Bovada | Ohio -34 → Ohio -32.5 | 53 → 53.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ohio win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio -28 | 51.6 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Ohio -32.5 | 53.5 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Ohio -32 | 53.9 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ohio win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio -28 · market Ohio -32.5 · difference -4.5 pts (Ohio view)
- Total
- model 51.6 · market 53.5 · difference -1.9
Model margin is 4.5 pts more toward Stonehill than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stonehill 11.8, Ohio 39.8 | Ohio 97%right winner | 0.0 | 9.6 |
| New formula | Stonehill 11.3, Ohio 40.9 | Ohio 97%right winner | 1.6 | 10.1 |
Final: Stonehill 7, Ohio 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stonehill vs Ohio: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Stonehill | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.0 | 28.7#86 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 39.0#132 |
| Yards per play | 5.20 | 5.34#110 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.92 | 6.59#119 |
| Rushing yards per game | 134.8 | 161.7#86 |
| Net passing yards per game | 204.5 | 172.7#112 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.5 | 231.3#132 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 169.5 | 232.0#101 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 0.67#75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 0.00#138 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 0.67#130 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 2.33#111 |
| Stat | Stonehill | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.18#31 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.30#136 |
| Success rate | 38.7% | 41.1%#97 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 47.4%#128 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.3% | 9.2%#131 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7% | 14.2%#116 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 12.3%#106 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4% | 12.4%#61 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.52 | 4.28#69 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.72 | 5.15#130 |
| Average starting field position | opp 21 | own 34#27 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 16 | own 32#113 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3 | 62.7#96 |
| Stat | Stonehill | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.28#3 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16 | +0.08#79 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.16#118 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09 | +0.54#138 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.4% | 46.3%#61 |
| Passing success rate | 36.8% | 35.6%#117 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.5% | 9.2%#4 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.2% | 27.4%#103 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7% | 49.1%#137 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4% | 54.8%#17 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.4% | 57.8%#137 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.8% | 77.8%#17 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.3% | 60.0%#74 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stonehill schedule · Ohio schedule · all Week 4 projections
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