Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Alabama 30.8, Ohio 25.2 at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: South Alabama wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 55.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Ohio is 1-1, scoring 25 and allowing 38 points per game (-13 per game). South Alabama is 1-1, scoring 31.5 and allowing 21 points per game (+10.5 per game).
Ohio's below-average offense (94th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.2 points against an average defense) meets South Alabama's below-average defense (101st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ohio puts up. South Alabama's middle-of-the-pack offense (68th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Ohio's below-average defense (95th); that mismatch is where most of South Alabama's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio by 17 and South Alabama by 28 about 80% of the time.
South Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Alabama by about 3.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Ohio 36, South Alabama 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.6 points and the total by 21.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ohio / South Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Alabama -3.75 → South Alabama -7 | 53 → 49.75 | +190 / -227.5 |
| Bovada | South Alabama -4 → South Alabama -7 | 52.5 → 50 | +160 / -185 |
| DraftKings | South Alabama -3.5 → South Alabama -7 | 53.5 → 49.5 | +220 / -270 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Alabama win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Alabama -5.5 | 55.9 | 64% |
| Market consensus | South Alabama -7 | 49.8 | 66% |
| Blended projection | South Alabama -7 | 50.9 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Alabama win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model South Alabama -5.6 · market South Alabama -7 · difference -1.4 pts (South Alabama view)
- Total
- model 55.9 · market 49.75 · difference +6.1
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Ohio than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ohio 25.2, South Alabama 30.8 | South Alabama 64%right winner | 0.6 | 21.1 |
| New formula | Ohio 25.3, South Alabama 32.4 | South Alabama 67%right winner | 2.2 | 19.3 |
Final: Ohio 36, South Alabama 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ohio vs South Alabama: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Ohio | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.0#95 | 31.5#70 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.0#133 | 21.0#73 |
| Yards per play | 4.62#129 | 5.72#98 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.67#120 | 7.91#134 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.5#88 | 227.5#34 |
| Net passing yards per game | 142.5#127 | 218.5#78 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 214.0#126 | 143.0#86 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 259.5#117 | 201.0#74 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#70 | 0.00#24 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#138 | 1.00#72 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#122 | 1.00#118 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#101 | 1.00#51 |
| Stat | Ohio | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#93 | +0.09#72 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.32#136 | +0.12#116 |
| Success rate | 37.8%#113 | 42.3%#86 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.3%#134 | 40.5%#75 |
| Explosive play rate | 7.1%#134 | 12.1%#84 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1%#119 | 14.1%#117 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#98 | 17.0%#30 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.8%#45 | 13.4%#69 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.73#105 | 4.12#74 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.17#129 | 3.94#79 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#31 | own 32#61 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#99 | own 29#73 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#82 | 78.0#10 |
| Stat | Ohio | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#27 | +0.02#93 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11#119 | +0.18#45 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.19#128 | +0.05#88 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.50#136 | +0.19#114 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.7%#79 | 43.0%#83 |
| Passing success rate | 30.4%#130 | 44.3%#66 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.8%#11 | 16.5%#62 |
| Passing-down success rate | 20.9%#125 | 33.3%#55 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 55.3%#137 | 31.0%#90 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#45 | 53.1%#27 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 60.0%#137 | 31.6%#46 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 80.0%#21 | 60.1%#89 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#74 | 79.5%#117 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ohio schedule · South Alabama schedule · all Week 3 projections
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