Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio 27.7, Central Michigan 20.4 at Peden Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Ohio wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.3 points and 48.1 combined points.
Central Michigan is 3-2, scoring 17.6 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-7.8 per game). Ohio is 3-2, scoring 26.8 and allowing 26.8 points per game (+0 per game).
Expect Central Michigan to find it hard going: Ohio's below-average defense (87th) outranks Central Michigan's struggling offense (123rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.9 points against an average defense). Ohio's below-average offense (95th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.3 points against an average defense) meets Central Michigan's below-average defense (96th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ohio puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Michigan by 15 and Ohio by 30 about 80% of the time.
Ohio gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ohio by about 5.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Central Michigan 14, Ohio 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.7 points and the total by 3.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Central Michigan / Ohio) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio -3.25 → Ohio -2.5 | 46.75 → 45.75 | +132 / -155 |
| Bovada | Ohio -3.5 → Ohio -2.5 | 47 → 46 | +150 / -175 |
| DraftKings | Ohio -3 → Ohio -2.5 | 46.5 → 45.5 | +114 / -135 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ohio win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio -7.5 | 48.1 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Ohio -2.5 | 45.8 | 58% |
| Blended projection | Ohio -3.5 | 47.0 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ohio win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 58% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio -7.3 · market Ohio -2.5 · difference +4.8 pts (Ohio view)
- Total
- model 48.1 · market 45.75 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 4.8 pts more toward Ohio than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Central Michigan 20.4, Ohio 27.7 | Ohio 68%right winner | 9.7 | 3.1 |
| New formula | Central Michigan 19.4, Ohio 27.2 | Ohio 70%right winner | 9.2 | 1.6 |
Final: Central Michigan 14, Ohio 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Central Michigan vs Ohio: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Central Michigan | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.6#130 | 26.8#86 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4#88 | 26.8#103 |
| Yards per play | 5.29#118 | 5.80#92 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.86#96 | 5.67#81 |
| Rushing yards per game | 213.8#32 | 201.2#40 |
| Net passing yards per game | 87.8#137 | 162.0#121 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.0#107 | 155.8#72 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.8#61 | 200.2#63 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#88 | 0.80#71 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.40#25 | 0.40#128 |
| Sacks per game | 1.60#95 | 1.20#122 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.80#84 | 1.80#85 |
| Stat | Central Michigan | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#103 | +0.13#49 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#68 | +0.10#101 |
| Success rate | 39.7%#112 | 44.0%#61 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4%#107 | 41.4%#80 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.3%#137 | 11.9%#95 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7%#75 | 11.5%#64 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5%#105 | 15.2%#44 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.8%#42 | 11.0%#26 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.65#107 | 4.03#77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.23#101 | 4.10#91 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#111 | own 33#29 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#115 | own 31#106 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.0#129 | 62.6#100 |
| Stat | Central Michigan | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.25#4 | +0.17#23 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.49#138 | +0.07#77 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.19#127 | +0.03#69 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#22 | +0.18#110 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.4%#33 | 48.3%#38 |
| Passing success rate | 20.0%#138 | 38.9%#99 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.1%#4 | 13.1%#18 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.2%#127 | 30.8%#79 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.2%#87 | 37.5%#128 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.7%#96 | 54.5%#9 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.9%#127 | 45.6%#119 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.0%#119 | 74.0%#18 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.7%#122 | 56.3%#65 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Michigan schedule · Ohio schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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