Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ball State 33, Sacramento State 23.5 at Scheumann Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Ball State wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.5 points and 56.4 combined points.
Sacramento State is 1-6, scoring 15 and allowing 32.7 points per game (-17.7 per game). Ball State is 2-5, scoring 20.3 and allowing 37.9 points per game (-17.6 per game).
Sacramento State's struggling offense (139th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 12.9 points against an average defense) meets Ball State's struggling defense (133rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Sacramento State puts up. Ball State's struggling offense (120th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Sacramento State's struggling defense (139th); that mismatch is where most of Ball State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sacramento State by 13 and Ball State by 32 about 80% of the time.
Ball State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ball State by about 7.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Sacramento State 17, Ball State 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.5 points and the total by 5.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Sacramento State / Ball State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ball State -14.5 | 51.5 | +475 / -650 |
| Opening line | Ball State -9.5 | 49.5 | +285 / -360 |
| DraftKings | Ball State -14.5 | 51.5 | +440 / -600 |
| FanDuel | Ball State -14.5 | 51.5 | +490 / -710 |
| BetRivers | Ball State -14.5 | 50.5 | +460 / -715 |
| BetMGM | Ball State -14.5 | 51.5 | +475 / -625 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ball State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ball State -9.5 | 56.4 | 73% |
| Market consensus | Ball State -14.5 | 51.5 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Ball State -14 | 52.5 | 83% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ball State win probability
- model 73% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Ball State -9.5 · market Ball State -14.5 · difference -5.0 pts (Ball State view)
- Total
- model 56.4 · market 51.5 · difference +4.9
Model margin is 5.0 pts more toward Sacramento State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Sacramento State 23.5, Ball State 33.0 | Ball State 73%right winner | 7.5 | 5.4 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Sacramento State 17, Ball State 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Sacramento State vs Ball State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Sacramento State | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.8 | 15.8#132 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 29.8#103 |
| Yards per play | 6.64 | 4.60#135 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.56 | 6.21#108 |
| Rushing yards per game | 273.3 | 152.4#86 |
| Net passing yards per game | 157.8 | 123.1#132 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.3 | 187.5#105 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.6 | 222.3#76 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 1.08#86 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 0.83#105 |
| Sacks per game | 3.25 | 1.75#94 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92 | 4.08#135 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.14#133 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.03#82 |
| Success rate | 42.0% | 33.8%#136 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 44.3%#102 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1% | 11.0%#115 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6% | 12.9%#87 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 11.6%#98 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6% | 16.7%#135 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.19 | 3.12#128 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.04 | 3.88#71 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 28#119 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 32#120 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9 | 59.8#129 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14 | -0.07#116 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.22#134 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.03#87 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.03#79 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.4% | 34.3%#133 |
| Passing success rate | 37.0% | 30.3%#135 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6% | 21.3%#115 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1% | 21.8%#134 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9% | 32.7%#108 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.4% | 33.9%#127 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.4% | 43.0%#100 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.9% | 45.8%#131 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.3% | 62.6%#87 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sacramento State schedule · Ball State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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