Matchup analysis
Our model projects Central Michigan 27, Ball State 24 at Scheumann Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Central Michigan wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 51 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Central Michigan is 3-5 against the 70th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.9 and allowing 25.9 points per game (-8 per game). Ball State is 3-5 against the 77th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22 and allowing 35.3 points per game (-13.3 per game).
Central Michigan's struggling offense (127th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18 points against an average defense) meets Ball State's struggling defense (133rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Central Michigan puts up. Central Michigan's below-average defense (99th) should limit Ball State's struggling offense (120th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Michigan by 25 and Ball State by 20 about 80% of the time.
Ball State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Central Michigan is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Central Michigan vs Ball State: stat comparison
| Stat | Central Michigan | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.9#132 | 22.0#108 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9#89 | 35.3#131 |
| Yards per play | 5.07#131 | 5.42#114 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89#86 | 6.62#129 |
| Rushing yards per game | 182.5#55 | 148.0#100 |
| Net passing yards per game | 116.5#134 | 195.3#102 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 188.5#109 | 189.5#113 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 184.3#35 | 239.1#110 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#74 | 1.00#94 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#43 | 0.63#106 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#74 | 1.75#92 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.25#98 | 1.75#65 |
| Stat | Central Michigan | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#116 | +0.08#72 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#70 | +0.11#106 |
| Success rate | 38.9%#119 | 40.5%#103 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.6%#129 | 42.5%#86 |
| Explosive play rate | 6.5%#138 | 10.4%#126 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#72 | 13.4%#105 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3%#125 | 13.8%#70 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#64 | 13.4%#73 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44#115 | 4.17#61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.35#110 | 4.72#129 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#103 | own 28#110 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#117 | own 28#55 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0#127 | 63.4#93 |
| Stat | Central Michigan | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#25 | +0.02#102 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.27#138 | +0.14#50 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.17#130 | +0.01#59 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#23 | +0.22#121 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.5%#36 | 39.4%#111 |
| Passing success rate | 25.2%#138 | 40.8%#80 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.5%#9 | 19.9%#113 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.6%#131 | 30.3%#85 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.2%#118 | 34.4%#120 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1%#99 | 35.6%#111 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.5%#134 | 44.2%#119 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.5%#71 | 70.6%#32 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.9%#133 | 80.0%#134 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Michigan schedule · Ball State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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