Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Massachusetts 38.1, Sacred Heart 15.8 at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Massachusetts wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 22.3 points and 53.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Sacred Heart is 0-1, scoring 24 and allowing 31 points per game (-7 per game). Massachusetts is 1-0, scoring 37 and allowing 21 points per game (+16 per game).
Sacred Heart plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Massachusetts's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between a tie and Massachusetts by 45 about 80% of the time.
Massachusetts gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Massachusetts by about 20.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Sacred Heart 10, Massachusetts 37. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.7 points and the total by 6.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Sacred Heart / Massachusetts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Massachusetts -23.5 | 53.5 | +1100 / -2450 |
| Bovada | Massachusetts -23.5 | 53.5 | +1000 / -2500 |
| DraftKings | Massachusetts -23.5 | 53.5 | +1200 / -2400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Massachusetts win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Massachusetts -22.5 | 53.9 | 93% |
| Market consensus | Massachusetts -23.5 | 53.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Massachusetts -23.5 | 54.0 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Massachusetts win probability
- model 93% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Massachusetts -22.3 · market Massachusetts -23.5 · difference -1.2 pts (Massachusetts view)
- Total
- model 53.9 · market 53.5 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Sacred Heart than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Sacred Heart 15.8, Massachusetts 38.1 | Massachusetts 93%right winner | 4.7 | 6.9 |
| New formula | Sacred Heart 21.8, Massachusetts 32.9 | Massachusetts 75%right winner | 15.9 | 7.7 |
Final: Sacred Heart 10, Massachusetts 37. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Sacred Heart vs Massachusetts: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.6 | 11.1#136 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 38.6#136 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 4.26#136 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.39 | 6.36#119 |
| Rushing yards per game | 235.8 | 122.2#123 |
| Net passing yards per game | 161.6 | 156.3#123 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.5 | 227.2#133 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.5 | 219.5#69 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.40 | 0.75#23 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60 | 0.58#125 |
| Sacks per game | 1.40 | 1.08#131 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.90 | 2.67#118 |
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11 | -0.13#132 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.15#132 |
| Success rate | 44.3% | 35.7%#130 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.3% | 48.2%#133 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% | 9.6%#127 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 14.4%#122 |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 8.1%#136 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.0% | 14.8%#119 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 2.62#135 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.70#134 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 26#134 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 33#129 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.5 | 65.4#79 |
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.09#124 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | -0.17#128 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.05#99 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.29#135 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.9% | 33.8%#134 |
| Passing success rate | 43.2% | 34.6%#125 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9% | 23.8%#134 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.1% | 25.1%#121 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.6% | 35.0%#125 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0% | 31.5%#133 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.2% | 48.4%#132 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 46.0%#129 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 75.6%#130 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sacred Heart schedule · Massachusetts schedule · all Week 2 projections
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