Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Massachusetts 44.2, Stonehill 3.7 at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Massachusetts wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 40.5 points and 47.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Stonehill is 1-2, scoring 20.7 and allowing 23 points per game (-2.3 per game). Massachusetts is 2-0, scoring 37 and allowing 15.5 points per game (+21.5 per game).
Stonehill plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Massachusetts's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Massachusetts by 18 and Massachusetts by 63 about 80% of the time.
Massachusetts gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Massachusetts by about 38.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Stonehill 14, Massachusetts 36. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 18.5 points and the total by 2.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stonehill / Massachusetts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Massachusetts -33.5 → Massachusetts -30.75 | 50 → 50.75 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Massachusetts -33.5 → Massachusetts -30.5 | 49.5 → 50.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Massachusetts -33.5 → Massachusetts -31 | 50.5 → 51 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Massachusetts win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Massachusetts -40.5 | 47.9 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Massachusetts -31 | 50.8 | 98% |
| Blended projection | Massachusetts -32.5 | 51.3 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Massachusetts win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Massachusetts -40.5 · market Massachusetts -30.75 · difference +9.8 pts (Massachusetts view)
- Total
- model 47.9 · market 50.75 · difference -2.9
Model margin is 9.8 pts more toward Massachusetts than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stonehill 3.7, Massachusetts 44.2 | Massachusetts 100%right winner | 18.5 | 2.1 |
| New formula | Stonehill 14.9, Massachusetts 34.8 | Massachusetts 89%right winner | 2.1 | 0.2 |
Final: Stonehill 14, Massachusetts 36. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stonehill vs Massachusetts: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Stonehill | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.7 | 37.0#45 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0 | 15.5#48 |
| Yards per play | 5.87 | 7.02#36 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.85 | 5.42#78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 160.3 | 178.0#71 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.0 | 180.0#104 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 164.0 | 94.0#26 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 177.0 | 253.0#111 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67 | 0.00#29 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 2.50#5 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 2.50#47 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 0.50#33 |
| Stat | Stonehill | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.24#11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | -0.19#8 |
| Success rate | 40.6% | 49.7%#15 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 35.5%#28 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6% | 15.8%#21 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 7.9%#12 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 16.6%#33 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1% | 9.3%#13 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.89 | 4.40#58 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.66 | 2.98#17 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 38#11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 24#20 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.7 | 51.0#137 |
| Stat | Stonehill | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.19#17 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.24 | +0.34#16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.17#18 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | -0.20#15 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.6% | 52.6%#27 |
| Passing success rate | 41.2% | 51.5%#33 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5% | 17.1%#72 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.5% | 33.7%#51 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.6% | 25.3%#37 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.0% | 35.0%#102 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.7% | 30.4%#41 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.8% | 57.8%#97 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.3% | 59.8%#69 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stonehill schedule · Massachusetts schedule · all Week 3 projections
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