Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Sacramento State 28.4, Massachusetts 25.8 at Hornet Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Sacramento State wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Massachusetts is 3-0, scoring 36.7 and allowing 15 points per game (+21.7 per game). Sacramento State is 1-3, scoring 20.5 and allowing 27 points per game (-6.5 per game).
Massachusetts's struggling offense (132nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19 points against an average defense) meets Sacramento State's struggling defense (127th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Massachusetts puts up. Sacramento State's struggling offense (134th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.8 points against an average defense) meets Massachusetts's struggling defense (123rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Sacramento State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Massachusetts by 20 and Sacramento State by 25 about 80% of the time.
Sacramento State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Sacramento State by about 0.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Massachusetts 35, Sacramento State 6. Massachusetts won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 31.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Massachusetts / Sacramento State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Massachusetts -6 | 49.5 | -221.5 / +182.5 |
| DraftKings | Massachusetts -6 | 50.5 → 49.5 | -218 / +180 |
| Bovada | Massachusetts -6 | 48.5 → 49.5 | -225 / +185 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Sacramento State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Sacramento State -2.5 | 54.1 | 57% |
| Market consensus | Massachusetts -6 | 49.5 | 34% |
| Blended projection | Massachusetts -4.5 | 50.6 | 38% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Sacramento State win probability
- model 57% · market (no-vig) 34% · difference +23 pts
- Margin
- model Sacramento State -2.6 · market Massachusetts -6 · difference +8.6 pts (Sacramento State view)
- Total
- model 54.1 · market 49.5 · difference +4.6
Model margin is 8.6 pts more toward Sacramento State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Massachusetts 25.8, Sacramento State 28.4 | Sacramento State 57%wrong winner | 31.6 | 13.1 |
| New formula | Massachusetts 24.4, Sacramento State 27.0 | Sacramento State 57%wrong winner | 31.6 | 10.4 |
Final: Massachusetts 35, Sacramento State 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Massachusetts vs Sacramento State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Massachusetts | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.7#48 | 20.5#119 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.0#27 | 27.0#104 |
| Yards per play | 6.71#48 | 5.23#115 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.62#31 | 5.98#102 |
| Rushing yards per game | 188.7#52 | 127.0#122 |
| Net passing yards per game | 169.0#113 | 217.0#81 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 82.0#8 | 139.0#66 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.3#71 | 220.0#89 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#39 | 1.50#121 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.67#3 | 0.50#116 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33#48 | 1.50#94 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#53 | 0.75#34 |
| Stat | Massachusetts | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#55 | -0.09#130 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.19#3 | -0.02#46 |
| Success rate | 45.2%#47 | 38.5%#117 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.4%#14 | 39.0%#59 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6%#79 | 9.7%#124 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.6%#11 | 13.6%#109 |
| Havoc rate | 16.3%#35 | 11.1%#120 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.7%#44 | 15.9%#119 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.22#74 | 3.20#131 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.81#66 | 4.12#89 |
| Average starting field position | own 41#2 | own 32#48 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#15 | own 28#66 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 53.3#137 | 65.8#71 |
| Stat | Massachusetts | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#52 | -0.07#123 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#62 | -0.11#119 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#20 | -0.07#31 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.26#5 | +0.03#74 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.1%#21 | 37.3%#115 |
| Passing success rate | 45.0%#63 | 37.1%#110 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7%#59 | 24.8%#134 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.2%#58 | 24.4%#122 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.1%#15 | 25.7%#42 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.7%#94 | 35.7%#115 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.2%#20 | 34.6%#53 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.4%#97 | 45.5%#126 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6%#104 | 62.0%#82 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Massachusetts schedule · Sacramento State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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