Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Penn State 32.7, Buffalo 16.5 at Beaver Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Penn State wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.2 points and 49.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Buffalo is 1-1, scoring 20.5 and allowing 25 points per game (-4.5 per game). Penn State (No. 14) is 2-0, scoring 36 and allowing 4.5 points per game (+31.5 per game).
Penn State's strong defense (14th) should limit Buffalo's struggling offense (126th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Penn State's strong offense (37th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.3 points against an average defense) against Buffalo's struggling defense (120th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buffalo by 6 and Penn State by 39 about 80% of the time.
Penn State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Penn State by about 14.1. The game is on BTN.
Result: Buffalo 13, Penn State 55. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 25.8 points and the total by 18.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Buffalo / Penn State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Penn State -39 → Penn State -39.75 | 48 → 48.25 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Penn State -39.5 | 48.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Penn State -38.5 → Penn State -40 | 47.5 → 48 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Penn State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Penn State -16 | 49.1 | 86% |
| Market consensus | Penn State -40 | 48.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Penn State -36 | 49.2 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Penn State win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Penn State -16.2 · market Penn State -39.75 · difference -23.5 pts (Penn State view)
- Total
- model 49.1 · market 48.25 · difference +0.9
Model margin is 23.5 pts more toward Buffalo than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Buffalo 16.5, Penn State 32.7 | Penn State 86%right winner | 25.8 | 18.9 |
| New formula | Buffalo 9.5, Penn State 39.0 | Penn State 97%right winner | 12.5 | 19.5 |
Final: Buffalo 13, Penn State 55. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Buffalo vs Penn State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Buffalo | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5#115 | 36.0#51 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0#90 | 4.5#2 |
| Yards per play | 4.60#130 | 6.57#57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.38#74 | 4.31#25 |
| Rushing yards per game | 115.5#124 | 137.0#104 |
| Net passing yards per game | 225.0#74 | 306.5#23 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 119.5#57 | 112.0#50 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 287.0#130 | 116.5#12 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00#126 | 0.00#16 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#106 | 1.00#66 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#91 | 1.50#84 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#94 | 1.00#45 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#122 | +0.12#52 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#36 | -0.03#47 |
| Success rate | 32.4%#134 | 43.5%#66 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.4%#23 | 38.7%#50 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.1%#129 | 14.6%#38 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6%#51 | 10.3%#47 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#78 | 16.2%#40 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2%#92 | 11.0%#32 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.13#16 | 3.98#85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.38#40 | 3.23#31 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#114 | own 37#17 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#98 | own 20#2 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 74.0#15 | 67.5#55 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11#125 | -0.09#120 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05#111 | +0.34#13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.18#15 | -0.00#71 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#82 | -0.06#33 |
| Rushing success rate | 29.1%#134 | 36.4%#116 |
| Passing success rate | 34.4%#120 | 58.7%#15 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2%#86 | 16.0%#51 |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.8%#120 | 31.9%#64 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4%#57 | 29.0%#70 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.9%#97 | 50.0%#38 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.1%#68 | 26.1%#25 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 100.0%#2 | 49.7%#119 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5%#83 | 55.7%#58 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Buffalo schedule · Penn State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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