Matchup analysis
Our model projects Buffalo 27, Akron 25 at InfoCision Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Buffalo wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 52 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Buffalo is 5-3 against the 127th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.6 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-2.8 per game). Akron is 1-7 against the 109th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19 and allowing 32.8 points per game (-13.8 per game).
Buffalo's struggling offense (122nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense) meets Akron's struggling defense (132nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Buffalo puts up. Akron's struggling offense (128th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.5 points against an average defense) meets Buffalo's struggling defense (119th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Akron puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buffalo by 25 and Akron by 20 about 80% of the time.
Akron gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Buffalo is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Buffalo vs Akron: stat comparison
| Stat | Buffalo | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.6#107 | 19.0#128 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4#84 | 32.8#126 |
| Yards per play | 4.68#137 | 5.61#105 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89#85 | 7.01#133 |
| Rushing yards per game | 191.6#42 | 157.0#89 |
| Net passing yards per game | 149.0#130 | 206.8#87 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.0#81 | 189.0#110 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.4#99 | 237.8#109 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#100 | 1.38#128 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#122 | 0.63#105 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#107 | 0.38#138 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.38#105 | 2.88#126 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04#127 | +0.03#99 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#81 | +0.15#120 |
| Success rate | 36.9%#131 | 41.7%#90 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8%#54 | 44.3%#108 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.4%#133 | 14.8%#25 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#80 | 14.5%#127 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#84 | 12.3%#111 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3%#72 | 16.0%#126 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.71#100 | 3.90#90 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.84#73 | 3.90#80 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#58 | own 25#134 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#79 | own 32#126 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.8#8 | 64.9#78 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#107 | +0.11#53 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10#127 | -0.02#114 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#68 | +0.11#108 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10#89 | +0.17#109 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.7%#120 | 46.8%#42 |
| Passing success rate | 34.0%#130 | 35.7%#122 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1%#53 | 14.3%#25 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.4%#129 | 28.5%#101 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.6%#12 | 32.8%#108 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.6%#87 | 44.3%#41 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#42 | 39.4%#80 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.3%#124 | 65.7%#46 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.5%#99 | 51.1%#37 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Buffalo schedule · Akron schedule · all Week 13 projections
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