Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Buffalo 32.4, Robert Morris 16.8 at Broadview Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Buffalo wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.6 points and 49.1 combined points.
Robert Morris is 2-1, scoring 22.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+2 per game). Buffalo is 1-2, scoring 18 and allowing 35 points per game (-17 per game).
Robert Morris plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Buffalo's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Robert Morris by 7 and Buffalo by 38 about 80% of the time.
Buffalo gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Buffalo by about 13.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Robert Morris 28, Buffalo 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.6 points and the total by 9.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Robert Morris / Buffalo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Buffalo -28.5 → Buffalo -27.75 | 45.25 → 46.25 | +1400 / -3200 |
| DraftKings | Buffalo -28.5 → Buffalo -27.5 | 44.5 → 46.5 | +1400 / -3200 |
| Bovada | Buffalo -28.5 → Buffalo -28 | 46 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Buffalo win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Buffalo -15.5 | 49.1 | 85% |
| Market consensus | Buffalo -28 | 46.3 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Buffalo -26 | 47.5 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Buffalo win probability
- model 85% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Buffalo -15.6 · market Buffalo -27.75 · difference -12.1 pts (Buffalo view)
- Total
- model 49.1 · market 46.25 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 12.1 pts more toward Robert Morris than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Robert Morris 16.8, Buffalo 32.4 | Buffalo 85%right winner | 12.6 | 9.9 |
| New formula | Robert Morris 16.5, Buffalo 32.9 | Buffalo 86%right winner | 13.4 | 9.6 |
Final: Robert Morris 28, Buffalo 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Robert Morris vs Buffalo: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Robert Morris | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.3 | 18.0#124 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.3 | 35.0#123 |
| Yards per play | 5.40 | 4.14#137 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.89 | 6.66#120 |
| Rushing yards per game | 94.0 | 121.7#127 |
| Net passing yards per game | 223.0 | 165.7#116 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 161.3 | 183.3#114 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 151.3 | 298.3#130 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.33#114 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 0.33#123 |
| Sacks per game | 3.67 | 1.33#101 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33 | 2.00#97 |
| Stat | Robert Morris | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.15#135 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.04#77 |
| Success rate | 37.7% | 28.1%#138 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.7% | 37.7%#37 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 7.6%#134 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 13.1%#99 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5% | 13.6%#75 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 14.1%#95 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.90 | 4.91#25 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.19 | 4.05#80 |
| Average starting field position | opp 21 | own 26#130 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 20 | own 33#122 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.7 | 69.3#40 |
| Stat | Robert Morris | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | -0.12#131 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.17#128 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09 | -0.07#32 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13 | +0.14#100 |
| Rushing success rate | 26.8% | 25.4%#138 |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 29.8%#133 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.2% | 16.9%#74 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5% | 19.4%#134 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.6% | 29.6%#76 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4% | 28.3%#130 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 21.4% | 32.6%#46 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.6% | 71.4%#34 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.1% | 66.7%#97 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Robert Morris schedule · Buffalo schedule · all Week 4 projections
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