Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida International 25.7, New Mexico State 20.2 at Pitbull Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Florida International wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 45.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
New Mexico State is 2-3, scoring 27.8 and allowing 26.4 points per game (+1.4 per game). Florida International is 2-2, scoring 18 and allowing 14.5 points per game (+3.5 per game).
Florida International's middle-of-the-pack defense (70th) should limit New Mexico State's below-average offense (114th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.5 points against an average defense). Florida International's struggling offense (129th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.1 points against an average defense) meets New Mexico State's below-average defense (117th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida International puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico State by 17 and Florida International by 28 about 80% of the time.
Florida International gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida International by about 3.4. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: New Mexico State 3, Florida International 22. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.5 points and the total by 20.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Mexico State / Florida International) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida International -4.25 → Florida International -7 | 47 → 46.75 | +187.5 / -225 |
| DraftKings | Florida International -3.5 → Florida International -7 | 47.5 → 46.5 | +205 / -250 |
| Bovada | Florida International -5 → Florida International -7 | 46.5 → 47 | +170 / -200 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida International win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida International -5.5 | 45.8 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Florida International -7 | 46.8 | 66% |
| Blended projection | Florida International -7 | 47.8 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida International win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Florida International -5.5 · market Florida International -7 · difference -1.5 pts (Florida International view)
- Total
- model 45.8 · market 46.75 · difference -1.0
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward New Mexico State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Mexico State 20.2, Florida International 25.7 | Florida International 64%right winner | 13.5 | 20.8 |
| New formula | New Mexico State 19.6, Florida International 25.5 | Florida International 65%right winner | 13.1 | 20.2 |
Final: New Mexico State 3, Florida International 22. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Mexico State vs Florida International: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | New Mexico State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8#77 | 18.0#127 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4#98 | 14.5#18 |
| Yards per play | 6.45#54 | 5.88#87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.79#88 | 4.06#2 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.6#78 | 125.0#123 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.2#49 | 298.0#19 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.8#63 | 94.5#10 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 240.0#106 | 153.0#17 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40#123 | 1.50#128 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#85 | 1.00#68 |
| Sacks per game | 2.40#46 | 2.50#41 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.60#69 | 0.75#14 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#85 | -0.02#118 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#98 | -0.03#34 |
| Success rate | 40.6%#103 | 39.7%#111 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.4%#79 | 36.6%#24 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0%#69 | 13.2%#67 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3%#104 | 9.9%#24 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#95 | 14.5%#59 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.1%#110 | 12.4%#54 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72#104 | 2.81#133 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21#98 | 2.87#6 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#120 | own 29#86 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#120 | own 33#128 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.2#88 | 72.0#15 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#62 | -0.06#121 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#97 | +0.01#96 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#71 | -0.05#37 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#99 | -0.02#51 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.1%#83 | 33.1%#136 |
| Passing success rate | 39.2%#97 | 43.9%#64 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.2%#73 | 18.7%#94 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.4%#37 | 31.9%#69 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.3%#88 | 25.0%#29 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.5%#47 | 48.5%#30 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9%#107 | 29.5%#17 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5%#105 | 37.5%#135 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.6%#107 | 32.3%#2 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Mexico State schedule · Florida International schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.