Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida International 36.2, Long Island University 8.8 at Pitbull Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Florida International wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.4 points and 45 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Long Island University is 0-4, scoring 14 and allowing 37 points per game (-23 per game). Florida International is 1-2, scoring 17.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-1 per game).
Long Island University plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Florida International's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida International by 5 and Florida International by 50 about 80% of the time.
Florida International gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida International by about 25.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Long Island University 3, Florida International 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.4 points and the total by 22.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Long Island University / Florida International) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida International -35.5 → Florida International -37.5 | 51.75 → 54.25 | +1700 / -4500 |
| DraftKings | Florida International -35.5 → Florida International -37.5 | 50.5 → 54.5 | +1700 / -4500 |
| Bovada | Florida International -35.5 → Florida International -37.5 | 53 → 54 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida International win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida International -27.5 | 45.0 | 96% |
| Market consensus | Florida International -37.5 | 54.3 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Florida International -36 | 54.2 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida International win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Florida International -27.4 · market Florida International -37.5 · difference -10.1 pts (Florida International view)
- Total
- model 45.0 · market 54.25 · difference -9.2
Model margin is 10.1 pts more toward Long Island University than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Long Island University 8.8, Florida International 36.2 | Florida International 96%right winner | 10.4 | 22.0 |
| New formula | Long Island University 8.3, Florida International 37.6 | Florida International 97%right winner | 12.3 | 22.9 |
Final: Long Island University 3, Florida International 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Long Island University vs Florida International: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Long Island University | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.0 | 17.3#127 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.0 | 18.3#49 |
| Yards per play | 4.16 | 5.86#97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.92 | 4.18#12 |
| Rushing yards per game | 126.0 | 111.3#130 |
| Net passing yards per game | 115.5 | 338.0#6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 189.0 | 88.0#11 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 276.3 | 178.3#52 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.67#128 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.00#78 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 2.33#46 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 0.67#28 |
| Stat | Long Island University | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.01#115 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.16 | -0.09#19 |
| Success rate | 33.1% | 38.5%#118 |
| Success rate allowed | 50.0% | 35.9%#26 |
| Explosive play rate | 7.5% | 13.4%#64 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.0% | 7.0%#1 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9% | 14.4%#61 |
| Havoc allowed | 19.6% | 12.1%#52 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.75 | 2.89#133 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10 | 3.17#23 |
| Average starting field position | opp 18 | own 28#101 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 15 | own 35#133 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.0 | 76.7#8 |
| Stat | Long Island University | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.09#127 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.27 | +0.04#88 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09 | -0.14#13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.25 | -0.04#48 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.2% | 29.9%#136 |
| Passing success rate | 27.5% | 42.9%#78 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.7% | 21.2%#117 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.4% | 31.0%#78 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.2% | 24.9%#37 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.7% | 44.4%#57 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.2% | 31.9%#39 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 37.2% | 41.7%#131 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.3% | 30.1%#6 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Long Island University schedule · Florida International schedule · all Week 4 projections
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